Despite our assumption of more carefully and narrowly calibrated restrictions over time, we assume that the restrictions that will remain in place until next summer will continue to have a measurable negative effect on economic activity and that the intensity of that effect will fluctuate with the intensity of the restrictions. The current fitful trend toward loosening restrictions will be interrupted during the anticipated secondary and potential tertiary peak of infection and death rates in the intervening months. Resumption of more significant restrictions to the level of stay-at-home orders on a narrower basis can be expected for periods of four to eight weeks at least once more and perhaps up to three times. Even if, as is certainly possible and perhaps even likely, a future surge in infections and deaths equals or surpasses the current crisis, the resulting tightening of restrictions is likely to be more targeted using the information obtained from these earlier days. Nevertheless, the tightening of restrictions will have comparably severe short-term impacts on economic activity, as will an increase in the virus itself. It is important to note, that the current concerns over the meat supply stemmed not from government-imposed restrictions, but from outbreaks in the packing plants. Even as the federal government imposed legal remedies through the Defense Production Act, the limits of executive fiat were demonstrated in the time it has taken to reopen the closed plants and the limits on their production capacity now in place due to safety efforts to mitigate internal spread. As additional spikes occur in the future, the economy will be affected by the impact of the disease itself, as well as or in spite of any governmental or corporate restrictions or lack thereof. In the face of continued economic constraints, additional stimulus efforts are likely to be attempted. However, they too are running into a reality of the pandemic. No amount of added credit, reduced capital costs or direct cash infusion can boost spending when there is simply no market available within which trade can occur. Furthermore, given the severity of the economic impacts, stimulus efforts can only achieve partial mitigation of downward trends, partially substituting government action for normal economic activity rather than actually boosting that activity to normal levels. As the virus eventually reduces in severity and restrictions can be loosened more widely and more consistently, the economic stimulus efforts can begin to have their more common effects. Until then, throughout the remainder of this year and the beginning of next, they can only soften the blow and to a limited degree. To summarize, we assume that the health crisis will extend into Spring 2021, with economic restrictions in place until Summer 2021 and stimulus efforts continuing to be added, but to limited effect until those times. During the intervening period, we expect a gradual reduction in the immediate future followed by one or perhaps two more significant spikes and tightening of restrictions, but on a more targeted basis, until the final downward turn in severity after the first of the year that leads to the assumed final outcomes.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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