As a critical subset of international trade as well as a major source of domestic spending, tourism has been ground to a virtual halt by the mitigation efforts to fight the pandemic. Air travel and hotel occupancies have dropper to one-tenth of normal levels or less. Closures of foodservice businesses and of major attractions and events have eliminated the primary reason for leisure tourism and the ability to accommodate visitors. International border closures are likely to extend longer than many other restrictions, as are restrictions on major public events and gatherings. This will continue to weigh on the tourism sector. Even when restrictions are eased in general, specific restrictions for certain types of activities and for geographic hotspots are likely to remain in place. Unlike other industries, domestic production cannot be increased to replace international tourism. According to government data, approximately 77 million people visited the U.S. from other countries in 2017. That volume of people and the hard currency they bring with them cannot simply be replaced by boosting domestic travel. In reality, every sector of the economy has been affected by the pandemic, both the disease and the mitigation efforts. Manufacturing has been hit by illness related closures or efforts to prevent spread and by shifts in production emphases. Construction has lagged to a degree in terms of negative impact but will feel the effects more severely as both private and public construction projects are reevaluated and many cancelled or postponed. Other service sector segments have been closed to prevent spread or at a minimum had their business models disrupted by distancing and working from home. Real estate, insurance, farming, mining and extraction, trade, transportation, utilities, information, you cannot name a sector that has not experienced some ill effects. There have been a few, very few, subsectors and individual businesses that have had substantial increases in demand due to current conditions, but they are far between. As noted with healthcare earlier, even when there would seem to be a sudden increase in demand, it is not necessarily the type or volume of demand that can replace other business lines that have been curtailed. All of the ripple effects described in the preceding paragraphs are immediate and short-term effects of the acute phase of the current crisis. However, some of the effects are likely to continue beyond the acute stage of the pandemic itself and of government restrictions and other mitigating efforts. Aside from actual closures for businesses that could not survive the acute phase, changes in operating procedures and customer behavior spurred by the pandemic will have lingering, in some cases permanent, effects on economic performance long after the pandemic has passed. Those effects will change productivity, demand patterns and pricing. Businesses of all types are scrambling to develop new ways of working and serving customers that allow for greater distance between individuals and more protection from casual contact. At present everything is jury-rigged and correspondingly less efficient or durable. While more effective and permanent solutions will certainly be developed than plastic sheeting and bandanas, even more purpose built, comfortable and flexible solutions cannot overcome the changes in workflow and personal interactions such barriers and spacing create.
∴ PROGNOSIS
46
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs