Lithium Valley Main Report 2018
Price increases have been notable since early 2016. This correlates with the increase in the volume of spodumene concentrate exported from WA over the same period. Average price per tonne in FY 2016/17 was $A15,946 per tonne, peaking at $A17,764 per tonne in June 2017 from a low of $A14,704 per tonne in July 2016 (20.8% increase over the financial year). Some forecast demand for lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) range from between 495 – 600ktpa in 2025, up from 200ktpa in 2016. 73 This is driven largely by the increase in lithium-ion battery update for storage and EVs. As mentioned earlier this is considered a conservative demand forecast, with other estimates suggesting growth in demand could exceed 2,000ktpa by 2025 (driven primarily by the battery sector). The table below from 2015 shows the forecast demand for major lithium-ion applications: Table 9: Forecast global growth rates – LCE kpta
Demand kpta LCE 2015
Demand kpta LCE 2020
Demand kpta LCE 2025
Application Lithium Products
Growth rate
Lithium hydroxide and carbonate Spodumene / pet - alite concentrates Lithium carbonate
15 – 25% p.a.
Batteries
60 – 70
150 – 170 350 – 400
Glass / Ceramics Greases / Lubricants
2 – 4 % p.a.
40 – 50
45 – 55
55 – 65
4 – 8% p.a.
Lithium hydroxide
15 – 20
20 – 25
30 – 40
Lithium metal and alloys
3 – 5% p.a.
Metal Alloys
10 – 15
12.5 – 20
15 – 25
Air Conditioning Various
3 – 5% p.a.
5 – 10 7.5 – 12.5
10 – 15
2 – 4% p.a.
Polymers
Various
4 – 8
7.5 – 12.5
10 – 15
Specialty organo- compounds
2 – 4% p.a.
Medicine
4 – 8
7.5 – 12.5
10 – 15
3 – 6% p.a.
Others CAGR
Various
10 – 15
12.5 – 20
15 – 25
150 – 170 265 – 340 495 – 600 12 – 15% p.a.
Source: Dakota Minerals As is very clear, the main growth is in batteries, in particular EVs and renewable energy. Applying the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) assumption as calculated by Dakota Minerals (now Novo Litio Ltd) in Table 9, a forecast demand range of the spodumene concentrate export for WA has been derived.
73 Dakota Minerals (2017), Lithium supply and demand, https://www.dakotaminerals.com.au/lithium/lithium-supply- demand . (Accessed: 01 May 2018)
Page 106
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator