Figure 32: WA Forecast Volume of Spodumene Concentrate Exports to 2025 32
WA Forecast Spodumene Concentrate Exports to 2025 Forecast 12% p.a. (CAGR) Forecast 15% p.a. (CAGR) Average
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
-
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Source: InfraNomics
The forecast of export spodumene concentrate shown in Table 10 utilises Department of Mines, Industry Regulations and Safety (MIRS) data as a basis. All other assumptions, such as WA’s share of global spodumene exports, potential for new and unplanned operations, have been left unchanged. With more refining capacity it is expected that the amount of spodumene exports will decrease. The purpose of this graph is to estimate the volumes available either for processing or export. Table 10 sets out a number of key volume increase outputs from the analysis. Table 10: WA Key forecast volume changes for Spodumene Concentrate Exports FY2017 FY2020 FY2025 Export volume (ktpa) 866.4 1,217.3 – 1,317.7 2,145.2 – 2,650.4 Export volume increase (ktpa) – previous period n/a 350.8 – 451.3 928.0 – 1,332.7 Export volume increase (%) – previous period n/a 40% - 52% 76% - 101% Source: InfraNomics Expanding on the methodology as set out above, a forecast of the value of spodumene concentrate exports has been calculated. Figure 33 outlines the forecast trend of export value ($Am):
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