There have been a number of key reports on lithium price forecasts in recent months. In February 2018, Morgan Stanley issued a report suggesting lithium prices could reduce by as much as 45% by 2021. This is based on forecasts of a coming supply glut as lithium miners race to meet market demand. 74 However, this analysis has largely been discounted by industry experts and other analysts. It has been suggested that Morgan Stanley’s forecast of oversupply fails to take into account that few lithium processors have the capacity and ability to produce the very high-grade lithium compounds that batteries need. Therefore, supply pressure will continue until lithium processing capacity is expanded. 75 11.2 Cobalt Cobalt is an essential element in the production of battery storage devices, due to its ability to provide high energy density. Cobalt’s demand is forecast to increase dramatically over the coming decades, with its use in EV and other lithium-ion based batteries set to increase more than 6-fold, from marginally higher than 50,000 tonnes per annum in 2017 to approximately 325,000 tonnes by 2030 based on projections from Darton Commodities. Figure 34 and Table 12 illustrate both the total quantity (kt) and value ($Am) of cobalt exports in WA.
Figure 34: WA Quarterly cobalt exports (Sept ’13 – Jun ’17) 34
WA Quarterly cobalt exports (Sept ’13 – Jun ’17)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
$100 $120 $140 $160
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80
Quantity (kt)
Value (AUDm)
Source: Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety, WA
74 Jacobs, S (2018), Morgan Stanley predicts a 45% fall in lithium prices by 2021, 27 February 2018, Business Insider , https://www.businessinsider.com.au/lithium-prices-45-fall-by-2021-2018-2 . (Accessed: 01 May 2018) 75 Mordant, N (2018), Lithium glut? No way, say industry executives eyeing demand, 28 February 2018, Reuters , https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mining-bmo-lithium/lithium-glut-no-way-say-industry-executives-eyeing-de- mand-idUSKCN1GB2ZA . (Accessed: 01 May 2018)
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