Price increases have been notable since early 2017. This correlates with the increase in the overall value of cobalt exported from WA at the end of FY2016-17. Price per tonne in FY 2016/17 was A$51,669 per tonne, peaking at $A76,311 in June 2017 from a low of A$33,525 per tonne in July 2016 (127% increase over the financial year). Similar to Lithium, Cobalt demand is forecast to grow considerably over the coming decade. Gindalbie Metals, a Perth-based cobalt miner, forecasts an 8% per annum growth in demand to 2020 to meet the needs of the battery storage industry. 76 Canadian-based investment bank Eight Capital is slightly less bullish on the global demand for cobalt. However, Eight Capital predicts that supply growth will increase 4.1% per annum to 2025. 77 Figure 36 utilises these growth assumptions as a basis for forecasting WA cobalt exports to 2025.
Figure 36: WA Forecast Volume of Cobalt Exports to 2025 36
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 WA Forecast Cobalt Exports to 2025 Forecast 8% p.a. (CAGR) Forecast 4.1% p.a. (CAGR) Simple Average Source: InfraNomics The forecast export of cobalt in Table 13 utilises MIRS data as a basis. All other assumptions, such as WA’s share of global cobalt exports, potential for new and unplanned mining operations, have been left unchanged. Table 13 sets out a number of key volume increase outputs from the analysis. Table 13 : WA Key forecast volume changes for Cobalt Exports FY2017 FY2020 FY2025 Export volume (ktpa) 4.73 5.33 – 5.96 6.53 – 8.76 Export volume increase (ktpa) – previous period n/a 0.61 – 1.23 1.19 – 2.80 Export volume increase (%) – previous period n/a 13% - 26% 22% - 47% Source: InfraNomics
76 Gindalbie Metals Ltd (2017), Cobalt, https://www.gindalbie.com.au/strategies-and-commodities/cobalt/ . (Accessed: 01 May 2018) 77 Lazenby, H (2017), “Zinc price on the up as supply tightens; cobalt forecast revised upwards as demand intensifies”, 26 September 2017, Mining Weekly , http://www.miningweekly.com/article/zinc-price-on-the-up-as-supply- tightens-cobalt-forecast-revised-upwards-as-demand-intensifies-2017-09-26 . (Accessed: 01 May 2018)
Page 111
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator