Figure 1: Spatial overlay between risk predictions H j (Z 1 ,T 5 )
, the daily probability averaged over 5 weeks from week 37 to week 41) and
the 186 EHDV outbreaks emerging within the same period of time in France. H j (Z 1 ,T 5 ) outbreaks started in France in week 36, and the meteorological conditions of 2023.
is computed here considering the first 3 EHDV
Looking forward from the whole of the EHDV infected area in December 2023, we predict that the midges dispersal zone in early 2024 could expand to cover most of the western half of France (Figure 2). The south- eastern quarter of France was not exposed to a risk, probably due to the Massif central acting as an orographic barrier, similarly to the role played by the Pyrenees in the South. The dispersal zone could also sporadically reach free countries despite their long distance from the source, both over vast bodies of water (such as UK and Ireland towards north, and the Balearics and continental Italy towards south) and over land (such as Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands). However, those events could be considered rare and highly dependent on meteorological conditions.
Figure 2: Spatial distribution of H j (Z April) of long-distance dispersal. H j (Z France and the 4-year period 2020-2023.
2 ,T 5 ) , the daily probability averaged over 5 weeks ( T 5 - from W11 to W15; from mid-March to mid- 2 ,T 5 ) is computed here considering the whole EHDV-infected area at early December 2023 in
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