HOUSINGNEWS REPORT
MY TAKE
U.S. EXISTING HOUSING SALES MEDIAN PRICE SEASONAL ITY
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
AVERAGE MEDIAN
JANUARY FEBRUARY
90.26% 81.89% 79.72% 84.64% 83.62% 86.31% 84.4% 88.90% 82.42% 80.93% 84.86% 85.44% 85.66% 84.7% 91.00% 87.29% 85.98% 88.60% 89.17% 89.42% 88.6% 91.74% 92.00% 89.63% 90.77% 92.55% 93.26% 91.7% 96.41% 95.50% 94.91% 95.50% 96.87% 96.49% 95.9% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.0% 100.0% 97.49% 99.47% 99.25% 99.82% 98.10% 98.22% 98.7% 98.7% 97.49% 97.93% 97.99% 98.38% 96.70% 96.93% 97.6% 97.7% 94.13% 94.44% 92.76% 94.19% 93.82% 94.99% 94.1% 94.2% 91.57% 93.70% 92.29% 93.47% 92.72% 94.55% 93.0% 93.1% 93.39% 95.02% 91.36% 93.33% 93.10% 94.67% 93.5% 93.4% 92.37% 95.44% 92.38% 93.78% 94.46% 94.22% 93.8% 94.0% 84.1% 85.2% 88.9% 91.9% 96.0%
MARCH
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
the median January home sale price was almost 16 percent less than June.
purchase is a February acquisition (with a contract inked in December).
While there could be a unique product mix driving these differences (i.e. a greater percentage of luxury home sales in June and a greater percentage of entry-level home sales in January), the consistency from one year to the next verifies price seasonality. The best strategy for sellers to obtain a maximum sales price is to have a June closing, which corresponds to an April contract signing, assuming a 60-day closing period. That means that sellers need to have their homes actively on the market no later than March on average across the U.S. For buyers that strategy flips. Their optimum January price trough corresponds to a November contract signing assuming a 60-day closing period. Close behind the January
Most sellers become a buyer following their transaction. Their optimum strategy might be to purchase in January (with an almost 16 percent lower price) and then sell their existing property in June. The risk is that their home may not sell in June and they become owners of two properties. Just like the weather varies from season-to-season, so do home sales and prices.
TED C. JONES
Ted C. Jones is Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Company, and has been in that role for the past two decades. Prior to that he served as Chief Economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. He is an internationally recognized real estate expert and was chairman of the board of directors of the Houston Association of Realtors in 2004.
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OCTOBER 2017 | ATTOM DATA SOLUTIONS
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