PLATINUM OUTLOOK
Source: Metals Focus prepared for World Platinum Investment Council
PGM Outlook for 2026 by Edward Sterck, Director of Research, World Platinum Investment Council
Overview: In 2025, platinum broke out of its post-pandemic trading range to be one of the year’s top-performing commodities. Its price rose dramatically from May, and in December it reached a high of US$ 2,491.20. The price of ruthenium, palladium – and to a lesser extent – rhodium also benefited from increased investor interest in real assets against a backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic turbulence. Despite higher prices, market tightness prevailed in 2025, as evidenced by historically elevated lease rates and deep backwardation in the London over- the-counter forward market.
T he price action reflected platinum’s strong fundamentals, with multi-year deficits eroding above ground stocks, including the platinum market recording its third consecutive significant annual deficit in 2025, estimated at 692 koz (final numbers will be released on 4 March at www.platinuminvestment.com). Only five months of demand cover from above ground stocks remained at the end of 2025. Meanwhile, WPIC’s two-to- five-year platinum market forecast anticipates that above ground stocks will be fully depleted by the end of the decade, as diverse and resilient demand continues to outstrip constrained supply. Last year, the uncertainty caused by the US government’s evolving trade policy saw volatility in investment flows as the threat of tariffs rose, receded and rose again. As a result, our estimate for 2025 includes a net 150 koz inflow of platinum exchange stocks into CME warehouses in the US (noting that this article was prepared prior to the end of 2025 so these numbers are still estimates not actuals). Meanwhile, platinum exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings are estimated to have been net positive in 2025, driven by improved sentiment following the price breakout, robust underlying fundamentals, and platinum’s sustained discount to gold. Our initial forecast for 2026 suggests a balanced
platinum market, with a small 20 koz surplus. This is dependent upon an easing of trade tensions allowing a forecast 150 koz outflow from CME warehouses to more normalised levels, and the higher platinum price prompting 170 koz of profit taking from ETFs. Should trade tensions fail to abate, then 2026 could become another year where we see platinum supply again fall short of demand as these investment outflows do not materialise. In any event, the forecast market balance this year will not remedy the depletion of above ground stocks, meaning tight market conditions are likely to persist. Meanwhile, palladium (where around 80% of demand is automotive) also remained in deficit in 2025, with total supply of 9,368 koz falling 395 koz short of demand at 9,763 koz (including exchange stock movements which were net positive by 135 koz). Supply and demand in 2025 In 2025, total supply declined 2% year-on-year to an estimated 7,129 koz, its lowest level in five years, with mining supply falling 5% to 5,510 koz, also its lowest level in five years, as producers were unable to repeat the drawdown of work-in-process inventory seen in 2024. All major regions recorded lower output. Recycling supply recovered by 7% to 1,619 koz, as the increase in the platinum group
Edward Sterck, Director of Research, World Platinum Investment Council.
16 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | February 2026
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