China Gold Coin Group Year of the Horse 100g platinum bar.
metal basket price supported both the flow of spent autocatalyst material and higher jewellery recycling, especially in China. The estimate for total demand in 2025 is 7,821 koz, a 422 koz reduction on the previous year. This is principally due to the absence of substantive, cyclical glass manufacturing capacity expansions resulting in weakened industrial demand, which fell 22% to 1,902 koz. Automotive demand for platinum reduced 3% to 3,020 koz as demand from catalysed vehicles (i.e. internal combustion engine and hybrid powertrains) declined in both light and heavy-duty segments. Nevertheless, automotive demand was 10% above the prior five-year average. Automotive demand for palladium was 7,740 koz, down 4% on 2024 due to lower internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production and substitution in favour of platinum. In 2025, platinum jewellery demand rose 7% to 2,157 koz, its highest level in seven years, propelled by growth across most markets as platinum continued to take share from gold jewellery on the basis of its price discount relative to gold. Notably, China saw exceptionally strong growth, up 44% to 594 koz, following a spike in stock building by wholesalers during the first half of the year. Demand in North America saw its fifth consecutive year of growth. In India, the market faced headwinds as US tariffs negatively impact demand from platinum jewellery exports. Here, demand is estimated to have declined by 30% to 186 koz, nevertheless achieving the fourth highest annual total on record. Total platinum investment demand grew by an estimated 6% to 742 koz. Total bar and coin demand increased 47% to a four- year high of 522 koz, driven by China, which reached 418 koz. Estimated net investment inflows (150 koz exchange stocks and 70 koz ETF holdings) added a further 220 koz to the total. Outlook for 2026 Total platinum supply growth of 4% is anticipated this year, reaching 7,404 koz. Mine supply will remain constrained, with growth of only 2% expected, underpinned by work-in-progress inventory releases. Where new supply is expected to be commissioned, this is largely to replace depleted operations following prior years of underinvestment. Recycling supply is projected to continue its recovery, increasing 10% to 1,782 koz, as higher prices incentivise the processing of spent autocatalysts and more selling of old jewellery, particularly in China.
Total platinum demand is expected to decrease by 6% to 7,385 koz in 2026, largely due to an approximate halving of investment demand – a reduction dependent upon both an easing of tariff fears allowing an outflow from stocks held on exchange, and a higher platinum price prompting ETF profit taking. Encouragingly, industrial platinum demand is expected to grow in 2026, rising 9% to 2,076 koz, as glass demand growth returns. Platinum automotive demand is expected to erode by 3% to 2,915 koz due to ongoing drivetrain electrification, somewhat offset by firm heavy-duty automotive demand and growing off- road catalysation. Conversely, for palladium automotive demand, we expect the platinum-for-palladium substitution trend to begin reversing in 2026, offsetting falling ICE vehicle production and supporting automotive demand for palladium at roughly current levels through the rest of the decade. However, increasing recycling supply, supported by higher prices, improved scrap availability and the vehicles being scrapped being palladium heavy, means palladium is expected to trend towards a surplus within the 2026/2027 time period. Should recycling supply not increase as expected, then palladium will remain in a deficit for the foreseeable future. This year, platinum jewellery demand is expected to contract by 6%, to 2,036 koz. In China, the underlying trend is one of growth and, while a 14% year-on-year decline is projected, this is exaggerated by the one-off, exceptionally high levels of inventory- build seen in the first half of 2025. In North America growth of 1% is anticipated, as platinum’s price discount to gold continues to support platinum jewellery, albeit the absolute cost of platinum jewellery is set to rise. Demand in Europe is expected to be flat, while in India, demand is projected to decline 15% year-on-year as challenging conditions persist. In 2026, investment demand for platinum is forecast to reduce by 52% to 358 koz, with outflows of 150 koz and 170 koz from exchange stocks and ETFs, respectively. These flows are contingent on both an easing of tariff uncertainties and an assumption that ETF profit taking will occur. With regard to ETFs, it is worth bearing in mind that net holdings increased in 2025 despite higher prices. Meanwhile, total coin and bar investment is projected to strengthen by 30% to a six-year high of 678 koz. All key markets are expected to achieve higher totals, led by Japan and North America, while China will see growth for the seventh consecutive year. n
February 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 17
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