in AI and data centers and rising defense spending. S&P Global expects total installed capacity for all data centers to be roughly 550 gigawatts by 2040—more than 5 times what it was in 2022. At the same time, global defence spending could double to $6 trillion by 2040 amid increased international tensions and the emergence of new threats, the study says. AI & Data Centre demand and Defence demand—these two emerging vectors are each expected to roughly triple by 2040, representing a combined 4 million metric tons of additional demand. The study also identifies a potential fifth vector of demand— humanoid robots. While the technology remains in the early stages, some project that there could be 1 billion to 10 billion humanoid robots in operation by 2040. One billion humanoid robots in operation by 2040 would mean about 1.6 million metric tons of copper required annually, or 6% of current copper demand, the study says. Closing the supply gap Overcoming the impending supply shortfall will ultimately depend on the development of new mines and the expansion of existing assets. The study estimates that an additional 10 million metric tons of this “primary supply” will be required by 2040, on top of increased recycling. However, absent significant investment, global primary supply could produce just 22 million metric tons by 2040—1 million metric tons less than today. Reversing the current supply trajectory will be no small task, the study says. The copper sector faces a host of challenges above and below ground, ranging from declining ore grades; rising costs for energy, labor and other inputs; increasingly complex and difficult extraction conditions; environmental opposition, lengthy judicial reviews, and pressures from investors and governments. It takes 17 years, on average, for a new copper mine to go from discovery to production. “Primary production—mining—remains the irreplaceable foundation of copper supply,” said Eleonor Kramarz, Global Head of Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Consulting, S&P Global Energy. “Bridging the impending supply gap depends not only on geology, engineering, and logistics and investment, but also on governance and policies. That translates into timeliness in permitting and consultation, a time clock on litigation and stability in governance and regulation. The alternative is uncertainty, and uncertainty comes at a hefty cost.” Concentration of the supply chain presents another challenge, the study finds. Six countries are responsible for roughly two- thirds of mining production. Processing capacity is even more concentrated, with a single country—China—commanding roughly 40% of total smelting capacity and 66% of the imports of the main input, mined copper concentrate. Such concentration makes global supply and pricing vulnerable to disruptions, policy shocks and complex trade barriers, the study says. “The future is not just copper-intensive, it is copper-enabled. Every new building, every line of digital code, every renewable megawatt, every new car, every advanced weapon system depends on the metal,” said Aurian De La Noue, Executive Director, Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Consulting, S&P Global Energy. “Multilateral cooperation and regional diversification will be crucial to ensure a more resilient global copper system—one commensurate with copper’s role as the linchpin of electrification, digitalization and security in the age of AI.” n
Global copper production is expected to peak in 2030 at 33 million metric tons.
The future is not just copper-intensive, it is copper-enabled.
Copper is the great enabler of electrification, but the accelerating pace of electrification is an increasing challenge for copper.
across four key vectors, two of which are: Core economic demand—from construction, electric appliances, internal combustion engine vehicles, rail, shipping, aviation, power generation, and more—constitutes the largest overall share of demand, reaching 23 million metric tons (53% of global demand) by 2040. Energy transition and addition demand—from electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable power capacity and power transmission and distribution, as well as electrification in developing countries—commands the largest amount of total growth, increasing by more than 7 million metric tons to a total of 15.7 million metric tons over the same period. Demand from just these two categories will exceed copper supply by more than 7 million metric tons in 2040, the study finds. The gap widens further when you consider additional areas that have emerged in just the past few years, namely the rapid growth
February 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 21
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