for the energy transition. Should Africa follow this definition, is it right for its development, and is there a clear way to avoid definition overload?” I might suggest that the critical question is still “critical for whom?” You can call them what you like, and personally I prefer the term ‘transition minerals’ because it is less loaded and the meaning is clear. We’re talking about the minerals required to power a transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles. And there certainly is opportunity for African countries. Much of the talk is about tapping into specific dimensions of global value chains. These chains are shifting in the wake of Covid-19 and an over-dependence that many countries recognised they had on China. Diversification of supply chains to minimise disruption risk literally creates opportunities in those product’s value chains. Practically, then, the questions start to look something like: “Can Zambia become a regional hub for processing raw copper, cobalt and lithium?” If these minerals are critical for consumer countries, African countries need to think seriously about what steps can be taken to harness new opportunities. The DRC is not going to become the world’s new lithium battery hub, or a producer of world-class electric vehicles, overnight. But for it to move in that direction, the current deficits (still basics like skills, infrastructure, stability, and rule consistency) need to be addressed. I trust that there will be a few conversations and connections at this year’s Mining Indaba that start to meaningfully shift the dial for African countries. It remains a tragedy that resource endowments have yet to translate into broad-based development. Maybe this will be the year that this starts to change. n
and stable. A high likelihood of exogenous policy shocks causes them to flee. Connecting mineral endowments to manufacturing opportunities is critical because manufacturing is more labour- absorptive than mining. AI is a potential disruptor in this respect, but AI-driven robotics can also make mining (and manufacturing) less environmentally destructive (notwithstanding the extensive energy demands of AI itself). But the more traditional reason it is so difficult to build manufacturing bases next to raw material endowments is that the skills, infrastructure, and energy required to make it competitive are often lacking. The second, deeply connected to the question of diversification and development, is how we should think about ‘critical minerals’. So, the session called “Is the term “Critical Minerals” right for Africa?” looks promising. The write-up indicates that the “traditional definition for critical minerals was defined by the global north referring to minerals need(ed)
draconian fashion that minerals needed to be locally ‘beneficiated’ through raw export taxes, quotas or similar measures. The desire for diversification and development is laudable. Broad-based development has, however, proved elusive for many minerally-wealthy African jurisdictions. “Resource curse” dynamics are alive and well – high mineral rents as a proportion of GDP are often inversely correlated with development outcomes. But how countries address the drivers of this curse is all-important. Investors are typically risk-averse in long games, especially those in which consumer demand for the mined product is volatile and the future is uncertain. Just ask diamond miners. If those same investors see that mining companies will be asked to effectively subsidise downstream beneficiation, they will likely be more reluctant to invest in those jurisdictions. There are also the usual caveats that investors and miners typically don’t mind difficult laws as long as they’re consistent
It remains a tragedy that resource endowments have yet to translate into broad-based development.
Connecting mineral endowments to manufacturing opportunities is critical.
February 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 59
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