Forecast 2026 (CONT’D FROM PAGE 1)
Board Converting NEWS INTERNET DIRECTORY
Economics expects it to follow the same general pattern as the GDP. “We look for corporate profits to rise by 4.9 percent in 2026,” said Yaros. “That’s up substantially from the 0.5 percent expected when 2025 numbers are final- ized.” Even so, the 2026 pace remains slower than the 7.9 percent clocked in 2024. The expected 2026 rebound in profitability stems from a belief that stimulus from Washington will lift all boats. “We believe the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, with its tax cuts for businesses and households, should help the economy regather some steam in early 2026,” said Anir- ban Basu, Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group (sage- policy.com). The legislation’s 100 percent bonus deprecia- tion should help fuel business investment, while large tax refunds should invigorate consumer spending. Both activi- ties are important drivers of the nation’s economy.
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This stimulus from Washington is arriving at the same time manufacturers are getting a more solid footing on the nation’s shifting trade policy. “There has been a bit of a shock to the system in and around tariffs over the past year, and it is taking some time for many companies to understand their impact,” noted Andrew Petryk, Head of Industrials at Brown, Gibbons Lang & Company, an invest- ment banker (bglco.com). Specifically, companies have responded to China tariffs by sourcing imports from other countries—a move which has also lent succor to the nation’s recent supply chain ills. “Lead times have diminished as companies have found al- ternative or additional suppliers,” said Petryk. “Those that relied on one or two vendors now have three, four or five.” Manufacturers should also benefit from a decline in the cost of money over the coming months, as the Federal Re- serve shifts its focus from fighting inflation to bolstering employment. “We look for inflation to peak at just above 3 percent when 2025 numbers are finalized, and for the Fed to cut interest rates into 2026 until the federal funds rate falls to about 3 percent,” said Yaros. That rate, while much higher than the rates of early 2022, is a considerable im- provement over the 4.3 percent of mid-2025. Declining interest rates, which encourage businesses to launch new initiatives, are also a reflection of looser CONTINUED ON PAGE 28
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November 3, 2025
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