Global Stock Market Performance of Selected Indexes 2024, 2025, Five-Year Returns (annualized) as of December 31, 2025, and First Quarter 2026 (Sources: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance)
5-Yr. End 12/31/2025
1st Qtr. 2026
Country
Index
2024 23.31 -12.44 19.50
2025 16.39 25.17 28.93 21.51 23.01 10.07 26.18
United States
S&P 500
12.75
-4.63
Mexico Canada
Morningstar Mexico PR Morningstar Canada PR
8.05
8.11 3.19 2.47
13.27
United Kingdom
FTSE 100
5.69
9.02
Germany
DAX
18.85 -1.52 19.22
12.29
-7.39 -4.05
France Japan
Morningstar France PR
7.13
Nikkei 225
12.90
1.44
Australia
Morningstar Australia PR
7.23
6.76
6.01 2.70
-2.38
China -1.94 Artificial intelligence was a key driver of U.S. stock market gains prior to 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, AI propelled stock market losses. The Morningstar Global Artificial Intelligence Select Index includes stocks of 48 major companies with exposure to generative AI, AI data & infrastructure, AI software, and AI services. The index rose 75.27 percent and 34.78 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with another 30.84 percent increase in 2025. The Nasdaq Composite Index includes over 2,500 stocks and is a key indicator of tech sector stock market performance. Driven by AI, the Nasdaq was up 20.36 percent in 2025, following increases of 43.42 percent and 28.64 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Economic uncertainty in the first quarter of 2026 cooled AI optimism, and the Morningstar Global Artificial Intelligence Select Index declined 4.81 percent while the Nasdaq dropped 7.11 percent. The S&P 500 was also impacted, as it has significant exposure to AI. Five tech-heavy stocks comprise over 25 percent of S&P 500 market capitalization (total stock value): 1) Apple, 2) Nvidia, 3) Microsoft, 4) Alphabet, SSE Composite 12.67 18.41 The Federal Reserve is the key driver of short-term interest rates in the United States economy through its monetary policy, which is implemented primarily through targeting the federal (fed) funds rate. The fed funds rate is the overnight borrowing rate between banks, a very short-term interest rate that when changed, typically has a rippling effect throughout financial markets. The Federal Reserve influences the fed funds rate primarily by controlling the money supply in the United States. The amount of money circulating in the economy has an impact on interest rates and credit conditions - more money, lower interest rates; less money, higher interest rates. Changes in the fed funds rate generally affect savings and borrowing rates, although the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is not the only factor that influences savings and borrowing rates. The Federal Reserve, since 1977, has had a dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability. To achieve these goals, the Federal Reserve acts in a nonpartisan, independent manner to balance economic growth (which affects employment) with inflation. Lower interest rates can increase consumer and business spending which fuels economic growth and boosts employment. However, too much economic growth, or economic growth when the economy is near full employment, can increase inflation. Higher interest rates can lower economic growth by reducing interest rate sensitive consumer and business spending, which generally lowers the demand for products and services and consequently inflation. To achieve price stability, the Federal Reserve has stated that an inflation rate of 2% over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Fed’s price mandate. and 5) Amazon. Interest Rates
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2026
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