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Our Favorite Decision-Making Tool May Not Be as Fair as We Think WITH THE FLIP OF A COIN
“Movies or bowling?”“Pizza or burgers?” Long before Rock, Paper, Scissors and Magic 8 Balls helped us make major life decisions, people dating all the way back to the Roman Empire and the Middle Ages were flipping coins to make hard choices or gamble. Coin Toss Origins The Romans used coin tossing to settle personal disputes, calling it “heads or ships.” The coins depicted Janus, the two-faced Roman god of doorways and change, on one side and the prow of a ship on the other side. In the Middle Ages, they called coin tossing “cross and pile,”a game of chance among children. What we know as “heads”was the cross, and “tails”was the pile. The Purpose of Flipping a Coin In theory, when people need to make a decision between two equally viable options, and they can’t reach a decision, tossing a coin is usually the “fair”way to decide — or is it? A 2023 study by the University of Amsterdam sheds light on how the time-honored decision-making tool may not be as unbiased as we think. The ‘Randomness’ of a Coin Toss The study flipped more than 350,000 coins across 46 different currencies and found that a flipped coin returned to its starting position 50.8% of
the time. So, if a coin starts at tails, it will likely land on tails. This test was based on a 2004 theory that argued coin tosses land as they start 51% of the time. What’s more alarming is that a 2009 study revealed that coin tosses are easily manipulated. How is that possible if coin tosses are supposed to be random? The study showed that with a few minutes of practice, the tosses could be manipulated with sleight-of-hand to land in favor of whoever makes the toss. Choose Your Tossers Wisely While debate continues over the fairness of a coin toss, there’s not enough evidence to sway arguing siblings or the NFL to shy away from continuing the tradition. But if you ever find yourself in a coin toss situation with someone, it might be wise to choose a neutral party to flip the coin for you!
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