D iscussions about reforming the DoD acquisition process often focus on stream- lining bureaucracy and reducing burdensome requirements. Although these are valid concerns, they often distract from a more harmful problem with far-reaching consequences—the DoD’s persistent struggle to accurately estimate the cost, time, and effort required to develop complex weapon systems.
Systemic underestimation, driven by an often-unintentional bias toward optimistic projections, has plagued defense acquisition for decades. This “conspiracy of optimism” stems from a combination of pressures on both program managers and defense con- tractors, resulting in unrealistic ex- pectations, cost overruns, schedule delays, and ultimately, compromised national security. Reports have repeatedly shown that, when coupled with inadequate application of systems engineering practices to manage the inherent uncertainties of complex system de- velopment, systemic underestima- tion of weapon system development efforts significantly increases the risk of unsatisfactory program outcomes. In an effort to address these unsatis- factory outcomes and to streamline the acquisition process to deliver capabilities more rapidly, the DoD implemented the Adaptive Acquisi-
tion Framework, intended to provide more flexible and tailored acquisition pathways. However, there is now evidence that programs using these new pathways still may not deliver capabilities significantly faster than traditional programs, making it clear that streamlining alone is insufficient to address the underlying challenges. The following discussion examines the root causes of this systemic un- derestimation, analyzes its extensive consequences, and proposes solu- tions to address this critical challenge. The DoD can make better informed
decisions by fostering a culture of re- alism; embracing uncertainty through adaptive, knowledge-based acquisi- tion practices and iterative develop- ment; and incentivizing more accurate estimation of system development efforts. This will enable realistically managed plans and expectations and ultimately improve delivery of the warfighting capabilities needed to maintain U.S. military dominance. Problems of Complexity Developing advanced weapon systems is inherently complex and
Systemic underestimation, driven by an often-unintentional bias toward optimistic projections, has plagued defense acquisition for decades.
36 | DEFENSE ACQUISITION | July-August 2025
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