as a critical tool for informed de- cision-making. Independent cost estimates informed by adequate technical expertise, established estimation methodologies, and empirical data are crucial for pro- viding realistic assessments and counteracting inherent optimism in program cost projections. • Prioritize robust engineering oversight. The DoD should priori- tize and resource thorough and in- dependent technical assessments, including Technology Readiness Assessments, Independent Tech- nical Risk Assessments, and Sys- tems Engineering Technical Re- views. These assessments should begin early in the acquisition life cycle and continue throughout system development to proactively identify and mitigate technical risks and integration challenges, ensuring a realistic view of techni- cal maturity, system feasibility, and program risk. Program staff should be empowered to provide unbiased and technically informed advice, with their recommendations and concerns given sufficient weight in program decisions. • Embrace uncertainty and iterate smartly. The DoD should acknowl- edge that inherent uncertainty exists in complex development projects and build flexibility into program schedules and budgets to accommodate unforeseen chal- lenges. This can be achieved by embracing iterative development methodologies and knowledge- based acquisition to proactively manage uncertainty and guide ef- fective decision-making through- out the program life cycle. • Improve data collection and analysis. The DoD should improve data collection and analysis pro- cesses to develop more accurate cost and schedule models based on historical performance. This analysis requires standardized data collection across programs and ro- bust analysis to identify trends and improve future estimations.
While streamlining the DoD ac- quisition process remains important, addressing the systemic underesti- mation of cost, effort, and schedule is crucial for true reform. Fostering a culture of realistic expectations and creating incentives for accurate esti- mations are essential for improving program planning. However, some degree of uncer- tainty is inherent in complex devel- opment efforts. By embracing the recommendations in this article, in- cluding those that address the need for robust and independent engineer- ing oversight, the DoD can more ef- fectively manage this uncertainty, make informed decisions throughout the program life cycle, and ultimately deliver the capabilities needed to maintain its military advantage in a rapidly evolving threat environment. LARINO is the Director for Policy and Work- force within the DoD’s Office of Systems En- gineering and Architecture. He leads efforts to implement policy, develop guidance, and disseminate best practices for the engineer- ing of defense systems. He also partners with stakeholders across the DoD to identify work- force challenges and champion initiatives for the engineering workforce to ensure that the DoD maintains its advantage regarding War- fighter readiness in a rapidly evolving techno- logical environment. The author can be contacted at robert.larino2.civ@mail.mil . The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the Department of Defense. Reproduction or reposting of articles from Defense Acquisition magazine should credit the authors and the magazine.
Sources Cited and Suggested Reading • Government Accountability Office, Weapon System
Requirements: Detailed Systems Engineering Prior to Product Development Positions Programs for Success , GAO-17-77. 5000.02, “Operation of the Adaptive Acquisition Framework,” Jan. 23, 2020, Incorporating Change 1, June 8, 2022. Accountability Office, Weapon Systems Annual Assessment: DoD Is Not Yet Well- Positioned to Field Systems with Speed , GAO-24-106831, June 17, 2024.
• DoD Instruction
• Government
• Reward realism, encourage inno- vation. The DoD should implement incentive structures that reward contractors for accurate cost and schedule estimations, not just win- ning the initial bid. The incentives should be balanced with support for innovation and new entrants across industry, using evaluation approaches that consider such factors as technical approach, estimation methodologies, and team expertise. • Leverage technically informed independent cost estimating. The DoD should prioritize mea- sures to enhance the accuracy and influence of independent cost estimates, ensuring that they serve
DAU Resources • Technical Management Fundamentals (Course) • Fundamentals of Cost Estimating (Course) • Intermediate Cost Estimating (Course) • Application of Operating and Support Cost (Course)
38 | DEFENSE ACQUISITION | July-August 2025
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker