securing long-term supply of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper. Countries taking a cautious approach In contrast, countries such as the United Kingdom, Mexico, Peru, and New Zealand have expressed skepticism or opposition. While environmental protection is the stated concern, these positions also reflect economic realities: nations without advanced technological capabilities are more inclined to advocate caution. The debate, therefore, is not solely environmental. It also reflects strategic positioning in a future resource economy: technologically advanced nations push for regulatory progress, while others use environmental caution as leverage to maintain influence. ISA exploration contracts and resource targets Currently, 30 out of 31 ISA contracts remain active, though overall momentum has slowed. India submitted two new applications in 2024, both pending approval. Some nations, including Russia, have scaled back ambitions due to cost and feasibility concerns, relinquishing parts of their exploration areas. Interest is expanding beyond polymetallic nodules to cobalt- rich ferromanganese crusts and seafloor massive sulfides (SMS), which contain gold, silver, zinc, and copper. While these resources are more technically challenging and environmentally sensitive to extract, they offer significant potential value. Middle Eastern interest is also emerging. For example, Impossible Metals is partnering with Bahrain to secure nodule supply, potentially aligning with US strategic interests despite the country not being an ISA member. Economic potential Seabed resources, particularly polymetallic nodules, represent a gross metals value exceeding $20 trillion. Nickel alone accounts for approximately 40% of this figure, followed by copper, cobalt, and manganese. Nodules are widespread across the Clarion- Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific, covering 2.8 million square kilometers, with 0.9 million square kilometers currently unoccupied. Abundance ranges from 8 to 15 kilograms per square meter in different sub-zones. For license holders, profitability depends on identifying high- density areas to minimise collection costs. Exploration drilling and sampling are essential to determining economically viable pockets. Geopolitical implications Seabed mining is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical considerations. A recent example involves a US-based telecommunications company proposing a submarine data cable through the CCZ, overlapping areas licensed to China and Russia. As the US is not an ISA member, legal and diplomatic ramifications remain uncertain, highlighting potential international disputes over seabed resources. Technological progress Technological advances have been significant in recent years. The Metals Company (TMC) is testing large-scale pilot systems, including nodule collectors and riser-and-lifting systems (RALS) that transport nodules to production vessels. Impossible Metals is developing autonomous robots to harvest nodules selectively,
Demand for critical minerals is set to grow rapidly with the transition to electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-density storage.
minimizing sediment disturbance. Much of the industry’s expertise comes from offshore oil and gas engineering, with several exploration vessels converted from former drill ships. Unlike oil, however, the industry must lift solid ore, requiring specialised risers and handling systems. Consequently, many engineering solutions are adapted rather than directly inherited from terrestrial mining. Processing and refining Extraction is only half the value chain; processing poses further challenges. Nodules are rich in metals but have complex metallurgy. Current approaches include: • Pyrometallurgical RKEF processes producing manganese and nickel-cobalt-copper matte. • Hydrometallurgical high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) with selective flotation to refine battery-grade nickel and cobalt. • Hybrid approaches combining smelting and hydrometallurgical methods. These processes are established in terrestrial mining contexts, such as Indonesia’s laterite nickel operations, but require adaptation for nodules. Strategic partnerships A notable partnership between TMC and Korea Zinc, valued at $85.2 million, exemplifies the sector’s strategic development. Korea Zinc, a leading non-ferrous metal refiner and battery- material innovator, provides refining capabilities for TMC’s nodule-derived metals. This vertically integrated approach strengthens supply chain resilience, particularly for Western markets seeking reduced dependence on China. Looking ahead The future of seabed mining is uncertain. Demand for critical minerals is set to grow rapidly with the transition to electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-density storage. Yet environmental concerns and regulatory uncertainty persist, leaving the industry in limbo. For now, the “treasure at the bottom of the sea” remains largely inaccessible. The industry balances immense economic potential, technical innovation, and geopolitical significance against unresolved environmental and governance challenges. Once the ISA approves exploitation regulations, commercial activity is expected to accelerate rapidly. Until then, seabed mining sits between ambition and caution, conservation and commercial opportunity, science and policy. n
March 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 25
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