PLATINUM
Total mining supply fell 8% year-on-year to 1 453 koz in Q2’25.
Third consecutive annual deficit reconfirmed, expected at 850 koz in 2025 - WPIC
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) recently published its Platinum Quarterly for the second quarter of 2025 with an updated full year 2025 forecast.
“P latinum has broken out of its post-pandemic trading range to be the top-performing commodity in the first six months of 2025, outpacing gold, silver and broader asset classes. Its price rose dramatically in the second quarter, and in July it reached a ten-year high of US$1 450 per ounce,” said Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council. Total demand in Q2’25 fell 22% year-on-year to 1 886 koz, impacted by a 317 koz reduction in stocks held by exchanges during the quarter as tariff-related concerns eased temporarily and inventory levels unwound. This was only partially offset by strong quarter-on-quarter growth in jewellery demand (+135 koz, 25%), bar and coin demand (+39 koz, 55%) and demand for bars of or above 500g in China (+12 koz, 33%). Industrial demand was weaker year-on-year (-164 koz, 24%) despite being up 41% quarter-on-quarter, while automotive demand remained flat on the previous quarter, but fell 2% year-on-year. Meanwhile, total supply eased 4% year-on-year to 1 876 koz (although it rebounded 29% quarter-on-quarter). Overall, platinum supply and demand were effectively in balance for the quarter, recording an 11 koz deficit. Total supply is expected to decline 3% to 7 027 koz in full year 2025. This will be its lowest level in five years, with mining supply falling 6% to 5,426 koz, also its lowest level in five years. For full year 2025, the forecast for total demand is 7 877 koz, a 371 koz reduction on the prior year, principally due to the absence of substantive, cyclical glass capacity expansions this year. The platinum market is expected to record its third consecutive significant annual deficit in 2025, projected at 850 koz, a downward adjustment of 116 koz from the previous forecast.
Mine supply contraction Total mining supply fell 8% year-on-year to 1 453 koz in Q2’25, although, after an especially weak Q1’25 which was impacted by heavy rainfall in South Africa among other operational challenges, it recovered quarter-on-quarter (+369 koz, 34%). Full year mine supply is expected to decline 6% to 5 426 koz, some 701 koz (11%) below the five-year pre-COVID average. Global recycling continued to show indications of a recovery during Q2’25, up 14% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year. As the flow of spent autocatalyst material continues to grow through the remainder of the year, assisted by the improved platinum group metal basket price, recycling supply is forecast to grow 6% to 1,601 koz in full year 2025, although it will remain depressed compared to historic levels. Overall, total supply is expected to decline by 3% in 2025 to 7 027 koz. Above ground stocks are forecast to decline by 22% to 2 978 koz in 2025 (including a restatement of historical estimates), resulting in four and a half months of demand cover. Jewellery demand growth exceeding expectations In H1’25 platinum jewellery demand was the highest level since H1’15 at 1 201 koz. In Q2’25, platinum jewellery demand grew 32% year-on-year to 668 koz. For full year 2025, jewellery demand is expected to exceed the recovery seen in 2024, increasing by 11% year-on-year to 2,226 koz, as platinum continues to benefit from its price discount relative to gold. This will represent the highest global total since 2018. Forecast growth in China is especially noteworthy, up 42% year-on-year to 585 koz, while Japan will see a healthy 5% gain. European and North American demand is forecast to grow 7% and 8%, respectively, to reach record highs. Despite robust domestic demand, total demand in India
12 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | NOVEMBER2025
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