concerns. As a result, investment demand saw a net outflow of 64 koz in Q2’25. For full year 2025, total investment demand is forecast to grow 2% to 718 koz on continued strong investment demand in China. Bar and coin growth here will offset weakness in other regions, with total bar and coin demand rising 45% to 282 koz year-on-year. Meanwhile, demand for bars of or above 500g in China will rise 15% year on year to 186 koz. Driven by improved investor sentiment following a recent price surge, robust underlying fundamentals and platinum’s sustained discount to gold, ETFs are expected to see a resumption of net inflows during the course of the second half of the year to reach 100 koz. Exchange stocks are expected to see net inflows of 150 koz for full year 2025. Automotive demand above prior five-year average Automotive demand for platinum of 769 koz was down 2% year- on-year in Q2’25, a slight reduction, especially when considered against the uncertainty caused by changing US tariff policy. The full year outlook sees global automotive demand falling 3% to 3,033 koz as production of catalysed vehicles declines in both light and heavy-duty segments. Nevertheless, automotive demand will be 10% (281 koz) above the prior five-year average. Industrial demand contracts due to fewer cyclical glass capacity expansions In Q2’25 industrial platinum demand grew by 41% quarter-on- quarter to 513 koz. This followed an especially weak prior quarter, largely caused by negative net glass demand due to plant closures in Japan during the quarter. Industrial demand is forecast to fall by 22% year-on-year in full year 2025 to 1 901 koz, largely due to anticipated reductions in glass demand which is expected to decline by 74% to 177 koz. Chemical demand is expected to fall by 8% to 575 koz, offsetting gains in petroleum (+14% to 181 koz), hydrogen (+19% to 49 koz), medical (+4% to 320 koz) and electrical (+2% to 95 koz). “Platinum has broken out of its post-pandemic trading range to be the top-performing commodity in the first six months of 2025, outpacing gold, silver and broader asset classes. Its price rose dramatically in the second quarter, and in July it reached a ten-year high of US$1,450 per ounce. Platinum market tightness has been evident since December 2024, illustrated by extremely high lease rates and deep backwardation in the London over the counter forward market. This market tightness has persisted, despite the significant price increase that started during the second quarter, which encouraged metal into the market, suggesting that a further increase in price is required to meet ongoing market shortages. Looking to the remainder of 2025, platinum’s investment case remains compelling, with the platinum market in structural deficit. Platinum’s sustained, significant discount relative to gold continues to add to its appeal. This is especially true in China, where both jewellery demand and bar and coin demand are forecast to show exceptionally strong growth this year. The success of Shanghai Platinum Week, which achieved record-breaking attendance and is increasingly drawing an international audience, demonstrates heightened interest in platinum, both as an investment asset and as a critical mineral across multiple value chains,” said Raymond. n
A dramatic surge in China bar and coin demand elevated total bar and coin to 109 koz.
In Q2’25, platinum jewellery demand grew 32% year-on-year to 668 koz.
is due to soften, falling 10% year-on-year to 240 koz because of reduced exports amid US tariff uncertainty. Leap in bar and coin demand driven by China In Q2’25, a dramatic surge in China bar and coin demand elevated total bar and coin to 109 koz, up 55% quarter-on-quarter, while demand for bars of or above 500g in China grew 33% quarter-on-quarter to 47 koz. However, neither this growth, nor ETF inflows during the quarter, were sufficient to offset the impact caused by the outflow of stocks held by exchanges, which had accumulated to high levels throughout Q1’25 due to tariff-related
NOVEMBER2025 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 13
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