COLUMN
Democratic backsliding and why it matters for mining By Dr Ross Harvey, director of research and programmes at Good Governance Africa (GGA) Many of you operating beyond South Africa will have seen that Tanzania is about to host another sham election. This is part of a broader problem that we call ‘democratic backsliding’. It’s not only an African phenomenon, of course, but it is particularly worrying for countries that have never truly consolidated their democratic gains.
Dr Ross Harvey, director of research and programmes at Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Mining, of course, extracts materials used to build technologies that can change our carbon trajectories.
T anzania, for instance, has had whispers of democratic emergence since independence, but has failed to pass one of the standard tests of democracy – the turnover test: if the incumbent has lost power and peacefully accepted the result of a free and fair election, we can judge a country to have passed this minimalist test. South Africa has passed, though arguably the incumbent continues to behave as if it were an outright election winner. Tanzania’s ruling party – the CCM – has effectively eliminated the two major opposition parties. It was hardly subtle about it either. Using a classic dictatorship strategy, they jailed the leader of the main opposition party – Chadema’s Tundu Lissu – on trumped-up treason charges. So, while Tanzania has ostensibly democratic institutions – elections and a legislature – these are essentially means of gathering information to further authoritarian ends. It is a form of electoral authoritarianism. Dictators (or incumbent parties) typically utilise an array of state resources to maintain an iron grip on power. Their calculus is effectively that the costs of reform towards political and economic openness outweigh the benefits of the status quo in which they access rents and use those rents to repress
civil liberties. As the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) latest Democracy Index (2024) points out, “Across [southern Africa], an increasing number of governments have resorted to internet shutdowns and restrictions on political demonstrations as a means to suppress dissent… countries that experienced internet shutdowns in 2024 included Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.” Norway scored 1st with a score of 9.81 (out of 10) – no one can be perfect. Tanzania, by contrast, scored 5.20, coming in at 86th out of 167 measured, classifying it as a “Hybrid regime”, one which combines “elements of electoral democracy with authoritarian behaviours”. All indexes are relative, so despite obvious decline, its rank remains unchanged from 2023. On Freedom House, Tanzania scores a dismal 35%: “After a period of some liberalisation, President Hassan has begun to resort to similarly repressive tactics [to her predecessor, John Magufuli].” The 2024 V-Dem score for Tanzania is 0.415, placing it squarely in the “Electoral Autocracy” category. Putting the country on “Negative Watch”, the EIU succinctly notes that Tanzania’s upcoming general election, among others, is “likely to be stage-managed to keep incumbents in power.”
36 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | NOVEMBER2025
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