making sense of cooling sales counts as the market heats up After tallying one of the lowest sales counts on record in January, an easy hot take on King County’s residential real estate market is that 2024 has started with a whimper. But dive deeper into the data and it’s clear there’s more than meets the eye than just fewer sales.
in January (the highest share in any month since February 2022). Given that condos are associated with lower-priced homes (versus their more expensive residential counterparts), this shifting composition of sales appears to be having an impact on the median sold price, pushing it down. A longer-term perspective reveals the median sold price being 5% higher than one year ago and, when broken down by home type, residential home and condo prices were 8% and 13% higher, respectively. Below the surface of falling sales counts, King County’s January data revealed a market that’s headed in the right direction insofar as (increased) activity is concerned, both on the buy and sell side, while prices have remained consistent. More options for buyers vis-a-vis an increase in inventory will encourage balance in the market, while the Fed cutting interest rates—projected to occur later this year so long as the economic data isn’t too salubrious—will have the effect of creating more market engagement. By the end of 2024, it’s possible that King County’s housing market won’t just be heating up—it could actually be warm to the touch.
Based on sales alone, you feel pretty confident saying that King County’s housing market didn’t get off to the hottest of starts to begin 2024. And while there is truth to this, a singular sales count statistic—just like a singular month or year—does not define a market. Indeed, as one dives deeper into the data, it’s clear that King County’s real estate market is, in fact, beginning to heat up. Let’s get a bit more specific. For starters, sales— which fell to 1,061 in January—were at their fourth-lowest level on record of any month—a notable observation in the wake of characterizing the market as “heating up”. Looking beyond this data point, however, reveals an 18% decrease in sales between December and January—a decline, yes, but the shallowest drop-off on record between the two months and well below the typical 33% decline tallied at this time of year. Interestingly, this high-level change in sales was not consistent across home types, with condo sales remaining relatively flat compared to last month and 26% higher than one year ago,
while residential homes were 22% lower and 7% lower, respectively.
A contributing factor to the low sales count in January 2024 was the lack of options for buyers. King County’s inventory of 1,930 homes for sale was one of the lowest on record and 30% below the past-decade January average. With this said, new listings are showing signs of growing this total, rising 130% from December and, although the base of this calculation is a December count of new listings that was the lowest on record, it was well above the 80% jump usually realized between these two months. So sales counts aren’t as suppressed as they appear at first blush, and inventory—while thin at the moment—will likely benefit from a continued influx of new listings. But what about prices? At $775,000, the median sold price decreased 3% month-over-month, but as noted above, the county’s condo segment was a lot more animated than was the residential one, accounting as it did for 27% of all sales
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 7, 2024. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Service & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online