a market slow out of the gate is increasing its gait Compared to a sluggish December, Vancouver’s resale market showed real signs of life in January, with sales counts expanding and new listings surging.
New listings followed a similar trajectory to sales last month. There were 5,881 new MLS listings added in January, which was 185% more than December and was over and above the typical 140% December-to- January increase—though like sales, this was still below than the long-run January average (by 10%). As we head towards the spring, which is typically the busiest time of the year for the Vancouver Region’s housing market, there are some indications of a market that is picking up in activity, if only slightly. From a macroeconomic perspective, however, not much has changed, so until inflation is back within the Bank of Canada’s target range and the Bank begins loosening its restrictive policy rate, it’s unlikely that sales counts, in particular, will get back to their historical averages.
There’s a certain cadence to January that, to some degree or another, we all tend to experience. Yes, as we leave the holiday season (and all of its indulgences) behind and return to the familiar routine of work or school (accompanied by a resolution or two), January often starts a little slowly before hitting its stride in the latter half of the month. Our local housing experiences something similar, with sales and listings expanding slowly early in the month and then with more gusto towards month’s end. Listings can often be a catalyst for sales, and total inventory is typically at its lowest point during the year at the end of December—something that was indeed true in 2023. But when we observe it on a daily basis, there’s always a steep drop off from December 31st to January 1st, due in large part to expiries, and this year was no exception. So while 2023 ended with a total of 12,425 MLS listings, that dropped
to 11,060 on New Year’s day, and that’s the starting point for homes available for sale to start the year. From there, January finished with 12,488 total MLS listings, which was up 10% from January 1st, though was 2% less than December 31st. Inventory finished the month 4% below the past-decade January average, but was 13% higher than last January. With relatively few listings typically available to start the year, January sales are often quite subdued, and the typical seasonal pattern is a decline in sales counts from December to January. That wasn’t the case this year, however, as total MLS sales increased last month by 11% to 2,326. This was, in part, due to December’s low total, as January’s sales count was still 11% below the past 10-year average. The pace of sales increased through the month in January, as well, with 65% of the monthly total occurring in the second half of January.
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 7, 2024. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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