a seven-month trend comes to an end
Greater Victoria’s housing market started the year with an increase in monthly sales counts—its first in eight months. Above-average inventory, combined with seasonality, could mean that even more sales are on the horizon.
Stable inventory and a slight increase in sales counts led to a small decline in Greater Victoria’s months-of-inventory (MOI) measure to 5.0 in January, though overall conditions remained balanced. (Note that an MOI of less than 5 reflects conditions more favourable to sellers; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market.) As we head towards the spring, which is typically the busiest time of the year for the Greater Victoria’s housing market, there are some indications of a market that’s picking up steam—if only slightly for the time being. With above-average inventory and balanced conditions, there will be options for those buyers who do choose to participate in the housing market. From a macroeconomic perspective, however, not much has changed recently. Yes, sales will only fully return to more typical levels once inflation is back within the Bank of Canada’s target range and the Bank begins loosening its restrictive policy rate. Look for this to happen later in 2024.
As we literally turned the page in our calendars from one year to the next, so too did our local housing market turn a page. Specifically, Greater Victoria recorded a month-to-month increase in sales counts in January for the first time since May. Quite a feat, indeed. Now, while this is certainly noteworthy, a brief exploration of some historical context is useful in evaluating the most recent data in the shadow of 2023’s decade-low annual sales count. There were 307 MLS sales in Greater Victoria in January, which was up 5% from December 2023—a more active market being good news to many—though this surge in transactions is mostly in line with the typical December-to-January increase of 6%. Zooming out a little bit allows us to also note that January’s sales remain below the long-run January average (by 25%), but compared to sales from January 2023, there was 15% more activity last month.
In addition to sales picking up, January’s new listings total of 828 was higher by 156% versus December—a greater month- to-month increase than the typical 119%— with the number of new listings 6% above the past 10-year January average. On a year-over-year basis, last month’s total was also 19% higher. With a mix of higher sales, more new listings, and plenty of listing expiries on January 1st (inventory dropped to 1,456 on the first day of the new year from 1,558 on December 31st), total listings finished the month in a similar position to December: there were 1,550 total MLS listings at the end of January, a 0.5% decline from the previous month. And while that does run counter to the typical December-to-January increase of 8%, January’s total was still 9% above the long- run average and 21% higher than the same month last year.
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 8, 2024. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information shouldtakestepsastherecipientmaydeemnecessarytoverifytheinformationpriortoplacinganyrelianceupontheinformation.Theinformationcontainedwithinthisreportshouldnotbeusedasanopinionofvalue,suchopinionsshouldandcanbeobtainedfromarennieand associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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