2022 Economic Forecast (CONT’D FROM PAGE 22)
Wage Hikes Any tight labor market is likely to spark wage hikes— yet another driver of positive consumer sentiment. Today’s economy is no exception. “We have seen a significant in- crease in wages over the past year--as high as 20 percent to 25 percent for lower hourly entry-level employees or machine operators,” says Palisin. Nationwide, increases are running lower, due to normalization of wages in some industries. “In 2022 we’re looking at 2.6 percent growth in the employment cost index, compared with 2.9% percent for 2021 and 2.6 percent in 2020,” says Hoyt. (Economists consider the “employment cost index” as the best mea- sure of actual wage rates). Hoyt adds that “any risks to the accuracy of those numbers is probably on the upside.” Wage rates aren’t the only component of an employer’s labor cost. Toss into the mix a greater number of people employed, a greater number of job positions filled, an in- creased number of hours worked, and the total comes to what economists dub “wage and salary income,” And it’s
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clear that employers nationwide will be shelling out more of that in the coming 12 months. “In 2022 we’re looking at about 4.6 percent growth in wage and salary income, coming off a seven percent increase in 2021, which was up from the 1.3 percent of 2020,” says Hoyt. All that additional income should encourage greater consumer spending, a key driver of a healthy economy. And signs are that people have saved up considerable sums of cash that are ready to be spent. Throughout 2020 and early 2021, after-tax income rose much faster than had been anticipated prior to the pandemic. The reason was massive fiscal stimulus in terms of federal economic impact checks and expanded unemployment insurance payments. At the same time, consumer spending ran low- er than anticipated. “People now have a huge amount of savings,” says Hoyt. “Furthermore, consumer credit card borrowing has been weak, leaving consumers more flex- ibility to borrow money going forward if they choose to.” Construction Activity Given healthy corporate growth, it’s little wonder busi- ness investment remains robust. “Our members in general
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24 October 18, 2021
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