2022 Economic Forecast (CONT’D FROM PAGE 24)
or do new projects,” he says. “So what we see going on now are projects that were planned pre-pandemic or with short lead times.” Fueling the trend: Ready money. “For the most part our companies are able to access funds for hard capital in- vestments and lines of credit,” says Palisin. “Financing has
BCN(US)202109(o)(出血5mm).pdf 1 2021/9/7 下午 03:50:46 The economy should also benefit from more spend- ing on commercial structures. “We’re going to see more non-residential construction next year,” says Bill Conerly, Principal of his own consulting firm in Lake Oswego, Ore- gon ( conerlyconsulting.com ). “It will be strongest proba- bly in warehouses and light industrial, but also suburban offices. Early indicators, like the Architectural Billings In- dex, are looking positive.” This will be a welcome change over recent flat activity, which Conerly attributes to the long lead times characteristic of such projects, and a scar- city of new initiatives in the early days of the pandemic. “Early in 2020 nobody was signing papers to acquire land are expanding, building new warehouses and manufactur- ing facilities and buying new equipment,” says Palisin. “We are seeing a special uptick in the automation category be- cause of the labor supply issue.” Nationwide, the picture is the same. Moody’s Analyt- ics expects capital investment to increase 8.2 percent for both 2021 and 2022, another welcome rebound from the 5.4 percent decline of 2020. Companies are giving a lot of attention to bolstering their intellectual property infrastruc- ture. “Investments in information processing equipment and software is well above its pre-pandemic level as busi- nesses have boosted their IT budgets,” says Yaros. Higher energy prices have also fueled aggressive investments in mining exploration, shafts and well structures.
loosened up since a year ago when everybody was in a high state of uncertainty.” On the residential side, housing starts have been run- ning about 20 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to Moody’s Analytics. The prediction is for full steam ahead. “Annual growth in housing starts will remain
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26 October 18, 2021
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