2022 Economic Forecast (CONT’D FROM PAGE 26)
says Yaros. “There have never been so many open posi- tions across every industry and government, but the need for more workers is especially acute in manufacturing, transportation, educational services, healthcare, and lei- sure and hospitality.” The reasons for the scarcity are diverse. “There has been a significant drop off in labor force participation as folks were forced into retirement or are staying home to deal with childcare or other dependent care issues that are more difficult to handle in the current environment,” says Hoyt. Some fear the risk of workplace infections. Oth- ers are not finding exactly the job they want. And many pandemic-shocked people are reassessing their life mis- sions and pursuing new ventures. A number of factors may help relieve the labor crisis in 2022. These include the end of bonus unemployment insurance, a declining effect from stimulus payments, an abatement of infections, and a return to in-person school- ing. Supply Chains The tight labor market is helping fuel another business headache: a global breakdown in the efficient distribution of goods. “Most of the time the root cause of supply chain disruption is a lack of sufficient workers,” says Conerly. When people aren’t available to do the work, efficient pro- duction and transportation fall by the wayside. Cargo ships are piling up at ports, causing delivery delays and leading
strong because of favorable demand-side factors, namely demographics and excess savings,” says Yaros. Increases for 2022 are expected to top 12.9 percent--very aggres- sive by historical standards and only lower than the pre- vious year’s 15.3 percent increase because of temporary supply shortages. Eager consumers are bidding up the prices of sin- gle-family homes, and a general easing of mortgage lend- ing standards is helping grease the skids. Housing prices for 2021 are expected to jump 15.6 percent--a considerable improvement over the previous year’s 9.8 percent. As for 2022, Moody’s Analytics expects increases to decelerate to 1.4 percent, thanks to difficult year-to-year comparisons. Scarce Workers The generally favorable economic forecast is not with- out its clouds. As most employers will attest, today’s ambi- tious hiring initiatives are colliding with a scarcity of candi- dates. “Our members are having difficulty finding enough workers, especially for entry-level jobs,” says Palisin. “The average time-to-hire has doubled from what it was prior to the pandemic. This will certainly impact our member’s ability to take on new work or provide on-time delivery.” Nationwide job openings recently topped a re- cord-shattering 11 million—a huge increase over the 7 million pre-pandemic level. “The number one concern of businesses going forward will be finding qualified labor,”
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