the PGA Tour is only the tip of the ice- berg. Recreational golf is the 99 percent below the surface, and it’s incredibly healthy. All the leading indicators of participation are showing sustain- able growth in the United States. It’s more diverse; the business is stronger; golf-course construction has started to reverse its decades of decline, and new variations on the old game are attract- ing kids and women at record levels. What Covid started, remote work and a strengthening US economy ensures. Just look at the latest study released by the National Golf Foundation: • Rounds played are up 20 percent since the start of the pandemic (2020), an all-time record at 531 million. • About 93 percent of golfers expect to play as much or more in 2024. • “Green-grass” participation hit 26.6 million last year – the biggest single- year jump since the Tiger Slam (2001). • On-course participation growth since Covid shows increases in play by youth (up 40 percent), people of colour (up 27 percent) and women (up 25 percent). • Sixty percent of the growth since 2019 has been female participation. • Latent demand among non-golfers’ interest in taking up the game has hit a record 22.4 million. • Alternative forms like Topgolf are up 130 percent, driving a record num- ber of total golfers to 45 million, and people with this off-course experience are five to six times more interested in playing on-course golf, portending even better news for the game’s future. • Here’s the one I like best: A Stanford University analysis of vehicle and phone GPS data suggests the increase in rounds played has been powered by Monday-Thursday play. Don’t tell your boss, but early-week tee times are fuel- ling the boom. The view here then is that the ama- teurs will help bail out the pros. The new tour can expect years of disruption, but the five original principles that guided the professional game since World War Two will prevail. I think it was Churchill who said, “You can always count on golfers to do the right thing after they’ve tried everything else.”
threatens authority, war is only averted with deft statecraft. Curiously, given the short-game touch of its stars, the PGA Tour doesn’t do deft. That’s how we got to where we are. Our immutable conscience will always cause us to struggle with the resolution of pro golf’s circumstance, but as Tiger Woods taught us, “It is what it is.” Power and money will be consoli- dated. Private equity and the Saudis will bring change and a new world order. The question remains, can all this brokenness get fixed? It’s undeniable that we have a messy, uneconomical system. Two organisa- tions based in New Jersey and Scotland make the rules; neither is a pro tour. Maybe the most influential governing body is a private golf club in Georgia. If pro golf were starting over, we would have one governance structure, one back office and the best golfers play- ing against each other more often. But I don’t think the PGA Tour’s new money realises you can’t get from here to there. If PGA Tour Enterprises is a for-profit venture, will the players and the in- vestors continue to care about charity and the communities that have always supported pro golf? It’s telling that none of the investors are members of Augusta National, meaning part of the golf establishment. The bet is that they’re smarter than everybody who has run pro golf all these years, and that will be painful to see play out. Market forces determine what some- thing’s worth, but an outside influence like the Saudi Public Investment Fund seems to have artificially inflated tour pros’ value, and they now think they’re worth that much. Maybe they are and maybe they aren’t, but we’ll see a reck- oning in a couple of years. There are two schools of thought: Some pros think they’re being exploit- ed by the major championships, which return only 10 to 20 percent of revenue to the pros. The reality is that the ma- jors probably could afford to pay back $30 million in purses (rather than the current $20 million) but nowhere near the 50-percent return the pros or new investors think they deserve. The other school of thought was expressed by a young major champion who said pri- vately: “You gotta be kidding! I’d pay to lay in a major; they don’t have to pay me. Win one and it’s life changing – you’ve made your career.” I’d hate to see the US Open or Open Championship go the
way of the AIG Women’s Open with title sponsors, but it may be necessary for the governing bodies to continue to ser- vice the world game with handicapping, agronomy and amateur competition. The PGA of America faces a different challenge. With the DP (European) Tour and PGA Tour under one roof, the play- ers might implicitly boycott the Ryder Cup unless the PGA of America turns over control. Commissioner Jay Mona- han’s a nice guy, but he has a fiduciary responsibility to call PGA of America CEO Seth Waugh and say, “Sorry, pal, but you’re going to sell us the Ryder Cup, and here’s what we’re going to pay.” Flush with private-equity ‘Recreational golf is the 99 percent below the surface, and it’s incredibly healthy .’ cash, would it be a surprise if the PGA Tour also bought the PGA Champion- ship? Maybe the club pros still get to wear their red plaid jackets and march in the TV parade, but have we seen the last of these majors played under PGA of America ownership? What else will the PGA Tour buy? Be- sides giving $1 billion in equity to the players who remained loyal to the tour, they’ll probably start buying up the rights to tournaments. Only a handful of the current 40-plus PGA Tour events are owned by the PGA Tour, and none of the majors are. If the tour owns the event and the arenas, there may be more profit. Gambling is uncharted territory, but investors believe owning golf betting will pay off. Media rights fees are another matter. Pay TV is un- der stress as revenue has declined seven percent annually with the shift from cable to streaming. Live sports may be the lifeblood of media but the deep dark secret is that pro golf’s a minor sport that doesn’t draw the audiences or drive the subscriptions of the NFL, NBA, col- lege football, the Olympics or Premier League. Will big new media still value little old golf? (Full disclosure: Golf Digest’s owner, Warner Bros. Discovery, might be one of those bidders.) But all the question marks are about pro golf, not the game we play. If the brokenness gets fixed, it’ll be because
Jerry Tarde’s favourite golf stat: The National Dog Show attracts twice the TV audience as the Masters.
GOLF DIGEST SOUTH AFRICA 13
MARCH/APRIL 2024
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