Regional White Maize Production and Consumption 2022
Production 2020/21 Production 2021/22 Domestic Use (5-year-average)
10 000 000 9 000 000 8 000 000 7 000 000 6 000 000 5 000 000 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000 0
South Africa Zambia
Malawi
Tanzania
Uganda Mozambique Zimbabwe Kenya
Source: FAO Giews, 2022
• Due to the above, combined with strong export demand, we could see maize prices pulling away from export parity in 2023. • Despite this, local prices would still be influenced by global prices and the USD/ZAR exchange rate.
Looking Ahead
• Global research institutions and
• For the price levels forecasts in Table 2.1, we assume normal rainfall in the summer rainfall areas of South Africa. • Our view is that this will likely result in good production prospects for the coming season. White maize areas are however expected to shrink due to expansion in soybeans. This is underpinned by higher input costs
analysts agree that global agricultural commodity prices will come down, throughout 2023 and then more modestly into 2024. In 2025, prices are expected to start increasing again.
• Locally, we expect SAFEX prices to also decrease somewhat during
2023 and 2024 but the effect is less pronounced than in the global context due to the expected depreciation of the rand and the movement away from export parity.
for maize and the current high returns associated with oilseeds.
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