Absa AgriTrends 2022

Monthly Cattle Slaughter Numbers

JAN 2019 – JUL 2022

2020

2019

2021

2022

310 000

290 000

270 000

250 000

230 000

210 000

190 000

170 000

150 000

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Red Meat Levy Admin, 2022

Looking Ahead

We expect carcass prices to draw back from the highs in 2022 due to constrained economic growth and ongoing pressures on consumers’ disposable income. Lower grain prices and an increase in marketable animals will also contribute to this easing trend. We

expect prices to pick up again into 2024 with the prospects of improved control on the FMD issues. Increases are expected to continue into 2025 with the prospects of higher economic growth and increased bilateral exports. In the case of the latter, this is underpinned by our FMD issues improving. For weaner calves, in turn, prices are likely to remain under pressure for 2023 but do follow a modest upward trajectory through the rest outlook period. This modest upward trend is likely to be supported by increased carcass prices and improved economic prospects. The price increases are, however, less pronounced than carcass prices due to an expected increase in the supply of marketable animals. As with carcass prospects, a key to price growth would be to get FMD issues under control.

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