Monthly Cattle Slaughter Numbers
JAN 2019 – JUL 2022
2020
2019
2021
2022
310 000
290 000
270 000
250 000
230 000
210 000
190 000
170 000
150 000
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Red Meat Levy Admin, 2022
Looking Ahead
We expect carcass prices to draw back from the highs in 2022 due to constrained economic growth and ongoing pressures on consumers’ disposable income. Lower grain prices and an increase in marketable animals will also contribute to this easing trend. We
expect prices to pick up again into 2024 with the prospects of improved control on the FMD issues. Increases are expected to continue into 2025 with the prospects of higher economic growth and increased bilateral exports. In the case of the latter, this is underpinned by our FMD issues improving. For weaner calves, in turn, prices are likely to remain under pressure for 2023 but do follow a modest upward trajectory through the rest outlook period. This modest upward trend is likely to be supported by increased carcass prices and improved economic prospects. The price increases are, however, less pronounced than carcass prices due to an expected increase in the supply of marketable animals. As with carcass prospects, a key to price growth would be to get FMD issues under control.
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