Lemon Market Dynamics
Lemon prices showed strong upward trends up until 2016 after which the trend reversed (see Figure 4.4 below). Highly favourable returns during the early 2010’s induced expansion, not limited only to South Africa, but also in Europe and South America. As the associated volumes of these expansions started to come online, prices decreased accordingly. The downward trend was further exasperated by the Covid-19 pandemic in which demand for lemons negatively affected the global hospitality sector and in 2021 logistical issues as explained under oranges also affected returns. In 2022, there were mixed signals for lemons for the various markets serviced by South African exports. In Europe, lower production in Spain and Italy, during their 2021/22 season, set the scene for good prospects for exports from the Southern hemisphere into the
European market, but rain in Limpopo during April and unrest in the Eastern Cape delayed the volumes marketed. The loss of the Russian market is, in turn, causing pressure on other markets such as the Middle East, which is also pushing average export prices down. In terms of local production dynamics, 40% of the total area is 5 years and younger. This shows that there are still significant volumes that will come online over the next 5 years. This is bound to put pressure on average export prices and returns over the coming years if additional markets are not opened.
Average free on board (FOB) export prices for lemons (2012-2021) Prices in USD have been under pressure since 2016
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2012
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2019 2020
2021
Source: ITC Trademap, 2022
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