Absa AgriTrends 2022

Looking Ahead

• Orange and lemon prices are expected to record higher average FOB prices for 2022 compared to 2021, whilst average soft citrus and grapefruits expected to show a decrease. In the case of soft citrus, this is however highly dependent on variaties.

a trend of shrinking demand over the past years. Based on this, our projection for all groups is that prices will increase by around 2% in 2022. • Over the medium term, ongoing profitability issues related to high shipping costs (likely to last into 2023), for South African and other Southern hemisphere producers such as Chile and Peru, are expected to bring about some consolidation in the industry. This could result in slower growth in volumes traded Consolidation could result in future volumes being somewhat lower than inititally anticipated To achieve growth, alternative markets for South African citrus markets remain a key objective over the medium term. over the coming decade than initially expected, which could, in turn, bolster prices. For 2024 and 2025 we, therefore, expect average FOB price growth of just below 3% per annum.

• Over the next season, lower production in key EU countries

such as Spain, which suffered from persistent heat waves and dry spells, would likely support prices for citrus during the early weeks of the marketing season. The prospects of shipping costs that are still comparatively high to pre-pandemic levels are also likely to see only premium products being marketed from Southern hemisphere markets. This will likely also support prices.

• In contrast to the point above,

citrus demand is likely to soften somewhat in key markets such as the EU and UK due to substantial inflationary pressures in the cost of living. For grapefruits specifically, this trend is more subdued since this category has been experiencing


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