Absa AgriTrends 2022


The global grain and oilseed market has faced several supply disruptions over the past three seasons. The first was a persisting La Niña, that caused dry conditions in certain key grain and oilseed production regions around the globe, which included South America and the mid-west of the United States. The second factor was numerous trade disruptions which ranged from export issues and sanctions due to the Russia- Ukraine war, to export bans - for example, the 2022 wheat export restriction in India - which all added to global price momentum. Thirdly, labour issues and structural changes in palm production, due to the age of the plantations, contributed to the price run in global oilseed prices, specifically. From a demand perspective, record grain and oilseed purchases from China, as swine herds were rebuilt after the devasting 2018 African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak, combined with increased demand for commodities used as a biofuel feedstock, contributed to the upward price trend. Whilst speculative trade in agricultural commodities added fuel to the proverbial fire fund managers increasingly participated in agricultural, commodity trade due to the bullishness of the markets.


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