In terms of SAFEX price dynamics between white and yellow maize, the past three seasons showed fluctuations between the discount and premium dynamics of white maize compared to yellow maize, which can be explained as follows:
From 2020 onwards
large harvests around the region limited the opportunities for regional exports. In 2020 and 2021, production conditions were favourable due to high rainfall across large parts of Southern Africa, which resulted in production for
As a result of the above, white maize prices traded largely at a discount to yellow maize since the start of 2022, but there was a short time during the start of 2022Q2 when quality dynamics in the South African harvest resulted in white maize trading at a premium. various countries in the region being above their five-year average consumption (see Figure 2.2). This caused some countries, that were traditionally net importers of white maize from South Africa, to become self-sufficient or surplus producers and for the 2021/22 marketing year, exports of white maize decreased by 34.4% compared to the year before.
CBOT Corn, SAFEX YMAZ, and SAFEX WMAZ Prices
SEPT 2018 – SEPT 2022
SAFEX YMAZ
SAFEX WM CBOT Corn
350
5 000
4 500
300
4 000
3 500
250
3 000
200
2 500
2 000
150
1 500
100
1 000
08-Sep-2017 08-Sep-2018 08-Sep-2019 08-Sep-2020 08-Sep-2021
Source: Reuters, 2022
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