THE NEW
Emerging Risks for American Savers... and How to Overcome Them With Long Game Thinking
Martin H. Ruby,FsA Neil Wilding Becky Ruby Swansburg W ith Foreword by Capsur Capital Insurance Planning Inc.
The New Holistic Retirement EMERGING RISKS FOR AMERIC AN SAV ERS… AND HOW TO OV ERC OME THEM WITH LONG GAME THINKI NG Martin H. Ruby, FSA Neil Wilding Becky Ruby Swansburg W ith Foreword by Capsur Capital Insurance Planning Inc. Stonew ood Financial LO U I S VI LLE , K E NTUCK Y
Copyright © 202 3 by Martin H. Ruby. At rlal nr isgmh ittst er de sienr av ne dy . fNo romp aorrt boyf tahniys mp uebalni csa, ti inocnl umd ianyg bpehroetporcoodpuy ci ne gd ,, rdei cs torri db iuntge,do, ro r ot ht he epruebl lei cs threorn, iecx oc er pmt ei nc ht ahne i cc aa sl emoeft bh roidesf , qwu iot thaot ui ot nt sh ee mp rbi oo rd iwe dr i ti nt e nc rpi tei rc ma l i s s i o n o f reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. C3 3a p1 s9uHr eCrai pt ai tgael TI nr saudreaDn cr iev Pe ,l aSnuni tien g1 0I n1c . W9 1a9k-e4 8F8o-r5e8s t0, 0N C 2 7 5 8 7 www.capsurdirect.com Book Layout ©2013 BookDesignTemplates.com STwheanNsebwurHgo.-li1stsitceRde.tirement/ Martin H. Ruby with Neil Wilding & Becky Ruby
Foreword I’m confident this book is going to change the way you think – and change the way you approach your future in retirement. We live in a world that increasingly enables us to make quick, short-term decisions. Is there an accident on the highway? Use your phone to reroute your way home. Need a new rug for your home? It can likely be delivered in two days – or less. But when it comes to your retirement savings, I believe it is critical we take a long-range approach. After all, retirement is a long game. We all hope for a long and happy retirement, and that means the decisions we make have to support success for many years. However, as I meet with savers like you, I often find their retirement approaches are not optimized for long-term success in all the areas they should be. This means many savers may have an incomplete approach for the future. That’s why I believe the topics covered in this book are so important. Once you’ve read it, you’ll be better prepared to evaluate your current retirement approach – and make adjustments where necessary. I’m excited for you to learn: • How market performance, interest rates, and even the growth pattern of your funds can make the difference between a fully-funded retirement and a shortfall; • Why taxes may be the biggest, least understood retirement income risk you face – and how to evaluate your exposure ; • How to determine the amount of risk you’re willing to take when it comes to your retirement income – and how to align your approach with your comfort level. I'll make a bold prediction: In reading this book, you’ll be able to identify new areas that require a long-term strategy in retirement. And that knowledge will help you better prepare for the risks and opportunities retirement may bring. So dive right in, and prepare to change your thinking, your actions, and most of all, the decisions you make about your future. Here’s to developing a more complete, holistic approach to retirement. Capsur Capital Insurance Planning Inc.
Contents Prologue ......................................................................................................... i Watershed Moments — Why T hey Matte r ................................ . i Mee t Yo ur G uides ................................................................................. iii Is This Book f or Me? ............................................................................ v The Long Game ........................................................................................... 1 A New(ish) Phenomenon .................................................................. 1 Preparing for a Long and Happy Retirement ........................... 2 C omplete vs. Incomplete ................................................................... 3 COV ID and the Long Game ................................................................ 4 Our Commitment To You ................................................................... 5 America’s Response to the C OV ID-19 Pandemic ......................... 7 Spending Spr ee ...................................................................................... 7 If Not Now, When? ................................................................................ 9 Deficit Correcti on Tool s .................................................................. 10 A Marathon, Not a Sprint ................................................................ 13 Long Game Challenge #1: Growth & the Market ...................... 15 A Childhood Passion ......................................................................... 16 A Long Game Look at the Market ................................................ 17 Lessons from History ....................................................................... 17 Winners and Losers .......................................................................... 19 What Comes Next? ............................................................................ 22 Why it H urts So Muc h Wh e n th e Mar ke t C rashes ................ 24 The Impact of Volatility ................................................................... 25
The Flip Side of the Coin ................................................................. 27 Long Gam e Chall enge #2: Persistentl y. Low . Interest Rates. ........................................................................................................................ 29 The Pa st and the Present ................................................................ 30 Why L o w Inte res t Rate s ar e H ere to Stay ............................... 32 The Saver’s Dilemma ........................................................................ 33 What’s a Sav er to D o? ....................................................................... 35 Um, Is That All? ................................................................................... 36 Long Game C halle nge #3: I ncome .................................................. 37 A Quick Look at H istory .................................................................. 37 New Approach to Long Game Income ...................................... 39 Newl y Discovered Risks .................................................................. 40 Long Game Income ............................................................................ 46 But Wai t! T here’s Mo re. .................................................................. 47 Tax es. Ta x es. Ta xes. .............................................................................. 49 H ow Americans Save . . . .................................................................. 50 Your H idde n D ebt .............................................................................. 52 Your Si le nt Par tner ........................................................................... 54 Legislat ive Risk ................................................................................... 55 The Great American Savi ngs Myth ............................................. 56 Macro v s . Mi cro ................................................................................... 58 A Macro Analysis .................................................................................... 61 Analyzing Taxes Through a Macro Lens .................................. 61 “Total Tax Burden” Analysis ......................................................... 62 C runching Numbers .......................................................................... 63 The Cost of Conv ersion ................................................................... 66
Mandatory v s . Opti onal ................................................................... 68 The Future of Ta xes ............................................................................... 71 Three W a ys Your Ta x es Could Rise ........................................... 71 Prepare for the Rise .......................................................................... 76 How Hig h Coul d t he Tax es Go? ......................................................... 77 Forg et the Highest Rate Already ................................................. 77 The M iddl e What? .............................................................................. 79 Rising Taxes .............................................................................................. 81 Dolla rs an d Cents ............................................................................... 81 Rising Taxes . . . In D ollar s and C ents ........................................ 82 Your Long Game Approach to Taxes ......................................... 83 That ’s Right —It’s Not Too L ate ................................................... 84 Marty’s N e w Str ategy ....................................................................... 85 C rafting Your Long Game Retirement .......................................... 87 Need Help? ............................................................................................ 88 A Retirement Workout .................................................................... 89 Final Thoughts .................................................................................... 90 Pay It Forw ard ............................................................................................ A Ne w Rule s f or th e N e xt G eneration .............................................. A The New Rules of Retirement Saving ............................................... E C risis in America ................................................................................... G The Old Rules of Retirement Saving .............................................. J Three Rules for a B ett er Fut ure ...................................................... K Rule #1: Know Your Risk ...................................................................... M Your T hree Bi gges t Ri sks ................................................................. N
ABOUT THE AUTH ORS ........................................................................... S Marti n H. Ruby, F SA ............................................................................. S Neil Wilding ............................................................................................ U Be cky Ruby Swans burg .................................................................... W ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................ Y
Prologue W ATERSHED - \WAW- TER - SHED \ NOUN : A CRUCI AL DIVIDIN G POINT , LINE , OR FACTOR : A TURNIN G POINT his is not a b ook a bout the CO VID- 19 pandemic. TSpheisciifsicaablloyo, tkhaisbbouoot kwhat comes next. addr esses what you can do today to posit ion your retirement for what the new futu re holds. Whe n the COVID- 19 pandemic hit America in March of 2W0h2a0t,cmhaanngyeosfwuosuthldocuogmhtea?bout the weeks or months ahead. H ow soon could things go back to normal? But, as the months went by, we came to realize some things are never going back to “normal.” Sur e, the restr ictions will end, and we’ll go back to washi ng o ur h ands a li ttle le ss th oroughly . But our sense of well-bei ng? The way business is conducted? The trajectory of our economy? Ou r nation’ s public policy? The pandemic has irrevocably impacted all . Watershed Moments — Why They Matter The COVID- 19 pandemic is a watershed— an inflectio n poi nt that, by necessity, changes what comes after it. It can all f eel new and scary—especiall y wh en it comes to your financial fut ure. T
i
i i • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG So, let’s star t by acknowledging one thing: This isn’t the first watershed moment for American savers, and it won’t be the lWaset.need to understand what makes this moment unique and how to make the necessary adjustments to growing, sa ving, a nd sp ending ou r wealth. Throughout hist ory, sa vers ha ve l ived t hrough era s that dramatically impacted our economy and markets. The Great Depression of t he 1920s a nd '30s uncovered the fragility of an unregulated stock market. The OPEC eo mi l bt oa rpg oo wo ef rt hoeu1r 9e7c0osn eo xmpioc s ee nd gAi nmees r. iTc ah’es rt ee cl iha nn oc el oog ny fbour be ibglne burs t of the early 2000s showed the dangers of ballooni ng stock prices. And, the mortgage crisis of 2007- 08 ga ve paus e to the American dream of growing wealth through homeownership. None of these watershed moments took down America’s abili ty to save and prepare for the future . Sti ll, the y all required adjustments for savers who wanted to achieve their pre- crisis financial go als. We are living in another watershed moment as we move int o t he 2020s— one perha ps la rger tha n anyt hing our count ry has ex perienced since t he Great Depression. The COVID- 19 pandemic disrupted the American economy in ways no t see n for generations . Job s, commerce, and markets have all been impacted in the U.S. and abroad. But, as we’ll d iscuss in th is bo o k, th ere’s r easo n f or h ope . In fact, like many watershed moments, the COV ID pandemic presents opportunities for those savers who understand the new r isk s b eing creat ed a nd u ncovered. And that is why we wrote this book. First, to help you understand the new risks created in the wake of COVID- 19. Second, to help you reposition your retirement savings to
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • i i i overcome these risks and achieve the happy retireme nt you deserve. In fact, consider this book as a roadmap for navigating what comes next. Meet Your Guides H aboowutdtidhethfue ttuhrreeeofaruetthiorerms oefntthsisavbionogk? come together to write Each of us comes from a different background, and we lend th at unique perspective to this boo k. To do this , we ’ll take tur ns wr iti ng c hapters that r ely on o ur v aried e xpertise . Martin Ruby, FSA, is an actuary. The Engl ish w ords “actuary” and “actual” stem from the same Latin root, which connot es “ a stat e of fact” or “that w hich is real.” An actuary is ai n dmu sattrhye mr eal itei cs so netxhpeemr t ,t oaindde n ttihf ey afni ndamn ci tiiagla taenrdi s ki.n s u r a n c e Actuaries certainly have a stereotype: They’re the math geeks of the insur ance industr y. Perha ps you’ve hea rd t he joke: “What is an actuary? A CPA without the personality.” While Marty has more personality than the joke-tellers give him credit for, he is definitely a math geek. H e’s made a career devel oping insurance product s and l eading financia l companies. H e loves numbers because numbers are absolute. Wm uhcehn aa nb ao luytz el idf ec, oer sr pe ce tcliya, l lMy airttsy fbi ne al ine cvieasl nsui dme b. eArns yc af ni n taenl lc iuasl under taking held up to the light of analysis by applied actuari al science will have a much better chance of su cceeding tha n one without su ch benefit . This hol ds doubl y true for retirement planning.
iv • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG Be cky Ruby Swansbur g spent her ear ly career dealing with a very different kind of numbers—count ing vot es during her time in Washingto n, D.C . She be gan her career i n the White House under George W. Bush . She we nt o n to wor k for the Speaker of the House and other m embers of C ongress on C apitol H ill where she honed her communication and policy skill sD.uring her time in the C apitol, Bec ky became interested icnh ohi coews s tahvee r sd emc ai ski oe .nTs h iuns , WB eacskhyi ns gp teonnt md ui rcehc tol yf h iemr p a c t t h e twenties ent renched in tax a nd sa vings pol icy. (She a ssures us that, while this sounds like a d ull obsessio n to the average reader , it w a s quite a popular obs ess ion in our nation’s capital.) Neil Wilding is a student of the markets. H e’s spent his career at the forefront of consumer financial advice, educat ing financial a dvisors on how t o al ign t heir recommendations with the needs of American savers. The market is always developing, and Neil has a keen eye for recognizing how these developments will impact savers. It’s like Google Maps, in a wa y. If you’re on a certa in path to rme et iarne my oeun tc aa nn ’dt at hr reirvee’ saat ny oa uc cr i dd ee sntti noar tri oo na d. Ycol ou sjuurset , ni te eddo ehsenl p’ t recalculating the route home. And that’s what brought us together: Our shared desire to he lp savers calculate the bes t route s to retirement. Nearly a decade ago, we founded a company to do just that. Lik e all financial experts, w e ea ch ha ve ou r own tak e on where the retirement savings industry is headed. We’ve spent countl ess hours debat ing w hich areas find savers well prepared for t he futu re a nd w hich area s p ose a consistent challenge.
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • v Initially, we each approached these questions from our unique per spectives . Neil, with his background in managed money, was focused on the market. Would the markets return to the boom-and-bus t c ycles we saw from 2000- 2009, or woul d tthheey2c0o1n0tsi?nue to produce the bull markets we saw throughout H ow would market volatility impact savers’ abili ty to gr o w th eir we alth? Marty , with his actuari al expertise and experience develop ing a nd p ricing financial product s, oft en discu ssed li on wc o mi n et e. rFeos rt rbaat be sy abnodo mt h ee ri rs i lmi kpea hc ti mo n, tgheenreer ai st i na gr reeatl i rcehma ne cnet interest rat es will b e low for the rest of their lifetime. As rme itti irgeaetse hmaavrek eh ti srtios rki ci na l rl ye t ri reel ime de not n, t hf i ixsepdo isnecsoambei gv pe rhoi cbl leesmt .o Becky, with her government and policy background, was focu sed on tax es. Grow ing wealt h wa s onl y hal f t he equation— keeping that wealth mattered, too. For every dolla r grow n in popula r tax- deferred vehicles like IRAs and 401(k)s, the IRS takes a cut. H ow big a cut will they take? Are sa vers prepared? In the end , we realized the answer was not, “Which one is the bigges t concer n?” but, rather , “Ho w do we he lp savers prepar e for all thes e concerns ?” That realiz ation led to this book. Is This Book for Me? Tthheecaonmswinegr,pmagoesst ilmikeplayc,tisaylmeso.sTthaellchallenges we’ll discuss in A merican savers to some degree, a nd there’ s a good cha nce you’ re underprepa red for
vi • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG at least some of the changes the COVID-19 pandemic has brough Butt,.if you’re curious how the pages ahead might speak to you as a saver, ask yourself the fol low ing quest ion s: • H ave you saved part or all of your retirement funds in a t ax- deferred vehicle, like 401(k)s or IRAs? • Are you concerned the stock market may be volatile in the years a head? • Do you bel ieve tax es coul d b e hig her in t he future th an th ey ar e to day? • Are y ou w orried about grow ing and pr otecting your retirement funds? • Are you curious how much total taxes you may pay the IRS in retirement? If you answer “yes ” to thes e questions , congratulations! This b ook is for you. By the time you finish reading it, we'r e confident that you’ll be better prepared for a successful retirement in the post-COV ID era of American history. It’s a big promise, but we’re confide nt, whe n yo u finish this boo k, yo u’ll loo k bac k o n this pr eface and agr ee.
CHAPTER ONE Go back in hist ory a hundred years, and t he concept of retireme nt bar ely existed. If you wer e alive and able, you worked . Whe n yo u qui t worki ng, i t was likely because yo u were ill, i njured , o r d ead. T The Long Game his is a book about playing the long game. No, we’ re not talk ing about you r gol f sw ing or a baseball game stretched into extra innings. We’re talking about the financial long game— abo ut ho w yo u positio n your savings, so t hey last throughout retirement. Retirement, after all, is a long game— a marat hon, not a sprint . W e need t o prepa re not just for t he act of ret iring, but for the length of retirement ahead. H ow do you play the long game when it comes to retirement? The long game is all about identifying and executing steps today that s e t y o u up f or long- term success tomorrow. Put another way: When it comes to retirement, short- term wins matter far less than long- term gains. So, you have to plan for the long game. A New(ish) Phenomenon
1
2 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG All of that changed in the 1880s when Otto von Bismark, C hancellor of the Prussian Empire , proposed government- fu nded fi nancial suppor t for the nation’s oldest citiz ens. Ga sesrims t aa nn yc eetvoecni tt ui zael nl ys wa phpor ol i vv ee dd pt ha es t pa lgaen s, epvreonvtiyd. i (nTgh fei ni ma npcai ca tl was n’t v ery s ignificant: Mo s t c itizens d id n’t li ve that lo ng.) 1 Fast forwa rd fift y y ears, and America created the Social Security system with an initial retirement age of sixty- five. H ad the long game finally come to retirement? H ardly. In 1l i f9e3e5x, pwehc teann ct hyeo fS oa nc i aAlmSeerciucraint ywAacst awr oausnpda s s e d , t h e a v e r a g e age f ifty-eight. By the 1970s , life expectancies i n the U.S. creeped pas t seventy, and, suddenly, we had a long game problem with retirement. Since the 70s, it’s only gotten wor se. In 2019, a sixty-five- year old woman could expect to live more than twenty years in retirement. 2 That represent s nearl y one quarter of her l ife. Now , sa vers needed a long game retirement. Preparing for a Long and Happy Retirement Don’t let this talk of “long game retirement” worry you; you’re pr obably alread y pr etty good at think ing long- term when it comes to your future. After all, when did you start saving for retirement? Was it three y ears ago? F ive y ears ago? 1 Sarah Laskow. Th e Atlantic. October 24, 2014 .“How R etirement W as I nvented.” hintvtpesn:t/e/dw/w38w1.8th0e2a/tlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-retirement-was- 2 OECD. 2019. “Life expectancy at 65.” https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life- expectancy-at-65.htm
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 3 No. It wa s likel y decades ago. In general, most of us are pretty good at thinking long term about retirement. So, why d id we wr ite th is bo o k? The truth is, many of us are not very good at thinking long tt eh ri nmk itnh ea lhl at rhde wr i og rhkt ipsl aocveesr wo nhceen wi te c’ voemseasv et od reentoi ruegmh emn ot . nWe ye. But, in some ways, the hard work is just begin ning. What do we mean? This book will show you. Complete vs. Incomplete For t he past several years, t he t hree of u s ha ve travel ed a cross the country speaking to savers like you. In fact, we’ve met thousands and th ousands o f y our pe ers . And, based on those we've met, almost all of you likely have one thing in common: an incomp lete retirement approach . WAshaaut tdhoorws eomf tehaisnbboyo“kinacnodmepxlpeetret?s” in our fields, we have itderemntiwfihedenthitreceomareesastowrheetirreeAmmenetr:ican savers must think long • Growth , or how you build and maintain your retirement funds • Income , or how you use your retirement funds to support you r lifestyle • Taxes , or how much of your retirement funds are yours to k eep We ’ll d etai l e ach o f th ese ar eas in th e page s ah ead .
4 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG We know the most successful retirees ha ve long- term pwl ea nms efeotr t yg rpoi cwa tl lhy, hi nacsoomn el y, ao nn de ot ar xt ews o. Bo uf tt hneesaer al yr eeavse cr oy vsearveedr. In fact, less than 10 percent of people we meet have adequate ly pr epared f or all th ree ar eas o f lo ng- term focus. Less th an 1 0 pe rcent! It doesn’t mean the other 90 percent don’t have plans or hsoamveetshuecwcersosnignprleatnirse. Tmheenirt.strategies likely position them for But, we believe that their plans are not complete because they’re no t focused o n all the areas of long- term risk to their assets An. d, if their plans are not complete, then the success of their retirement strategy may not be complete, either. COVID and the Long Game As we mentioned at the beginning of the book, the COV ID pandemic has created a watershed event for America. Nothing after will be quite the same as it was before. COVI D didn’t creat e t he n eed for a long game retirement, but it sure made it more important than ever. Why? The psychological and health ramifications of COV ID will be with us for some time. But, one of t he biggest long- term impacts of t he COVID- 19 pandemic will be the government’s rf reosmp onnos we ,t ow tehwe ipl lasnt di l el mf e iecl it thsee lrfe. pTeernc, utsws ieonnt sy ,oof rt ht eh idr teyc iys ei oanr ss lawmakers enact today— and those decisions will impact your retirement. So, if you’ve never thought about the themes in this boo k before, now is an incredibly important time to do so.
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 5 First step : Get educated. The good new s is, by readi ng this boo k, you’re already o n your w ay. Our Commitment To You You’re abo ut to spend the ne xt hundred pages with us as we teach yo u abo ut your long- term risks in retirement and how to address them today. If you rea d wit h curiosit y a nd tak e t hese issues t o heart , wr eet i rpermo me ni st e yyoouu’ vwe i l al lewmaeyrsg eh bo pe tetde r tpor el pi vaer.e dY of our’ l lt hheakvien dt hoef knowledge and tools to plan a long game retirement.
CHAPTER TWO
America’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic (and How It Impacts Your Retirement) By Becky Swansburg ei nf oc or em ew, ea nl do ot ak x ea st , wl o en gn egeadmt oe i sdterna tt ief gy i teos d faoyr’ s grri sokws t ihn, ea ch of these a reas. That st art s w it h the CO VID- 19 pandemic. No , not the disease itself. Rather, the disease’s impact on or eusrp oencsoen toomtyh.e Ad insde ,a sme ’ so ri me pi amcpt oornt aonutrl ye, c ot nh oe mgyo. v e r n m e n t ’ s Spending Spree If there’s one thing I’ve learned from my years in Washington, it ’s t his: Every government action has unintended consequences. The COVID- 19 pandemic began sweeping across America in Ma rch of 2020. B usinesses shut dow n. School s cl osed. The B
7
8 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG markets dropped 26 percent. Unemployment rose to near 15 percent. 3 The out look w a s dire for our national economy. So, Congr ess got to doing what Congr ess does best: spending money. In response to COV ID’s economic impact, the government pu na sesme dp l osyeevde rwaol r kset irms ua nl uds f l opuanc kdaegrei nsg ba iums iende s saet s . s u p p o r t i n g The price ta g on the initial set of stimulus packages was around $2.2 trillion. 4 This spending increased unemployment benefits, provided Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, and e xpanded Me dicaid acce ss . It als o added TRILLION S of dollars of new d ebt to the nation al d efici t. Government spending is a common way countries battle the economic impact of disruptive events. The New Deal sought t o sp end ou r wa y out of t he Great Dep ression, a nd bstoimthuGluesoprgaeckWag.eBs utoshadadnrdesBsarack Obama ushered in large t he 2008 recession. But COVID- related spending has eclipsed almost anythi ng our countr y has experienced i n the past— in bot h size a nd sp eed. In fact, the stimulus packages of 2020 generated the most deficit spending the U.S. has incurred in modern history. 5 3 TED (The Economic Daily). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 13, 2020. “Unemployment rate rises to record high 14.7 percent in April 2020.” h1t4t-ppso:/in/tw-7w-pwe.rbclse.ngto-vin/-oappurbil/-2te0d2/02.h0t2m0/unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-high- 4 Senator Mitch McConnell. Congress. March 19, 2020. “S.3548 - CARES Act.” hi dt3t p2sD: /8/2w0 w6 FwB. 1c o5nEg4r8eDs s3. Ag o2v0/Eb3i lCl /6171A61tEh6- c0o2n0g4r e s s / s e n a t e - b i l l / 3 5 4 8 / t e x t # t o c - 5 Emily Cochrane a nd Nicholas Fandos. The New York Times. May 5, 2020. “Senate Approves $2 Trillion Stimulus After Bipartisan Deal.”
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 9 And all that new spending will have a lasting impact on your retirement. If Not Now, When? “Okay ,” you’re thinking, “I ge t i t. Congress spe nt a lo t of money. We have a big deficit.” Mos t savers kno w this . But, have yo u considered ho w lmo na sgs iovue rd ec foi uc int tsrpye nwdi il nl gb?eA dn eda, lhi na vg e wy oi tuh ptrheep airme pd af cotr iot f? t h i s Back in March 2020, when the government was on its historic stimulus spending spree, a reporter asked U.S. Trea sury Secreta ry St even M nuchin if he wa s concerned about the deficit. After all, the government had just added two trillion dolla rs t o ou r nation’ s IOUs. 6 Mnuchi n acknowledged the historic defici t spendi ng, and then added: “In different times, we’ll fix t he deficit . This is not the time to worry about it.” 7 Did you cat ch that? Secretar y Mnuchin didn’t say, “We don’t have to worr y abo ut the defici t,” or “We have a plan to resolve the growi ng deficit.” He just sa id w e didn’t ha ve t o w orry about the defici t right now . 6 dehattl.phst:m//lwww.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/us/politics/coronavirus-senate- 7 Claudia Grisales, Kelsey Snell, an d Susan Davis. NPR. March 17, 2020. “White House Seeks $1 Trillion From Congress in Coronavirus Relief Push.” hwtat pv es :-/o/f -we wmwe r. gnepnr .coyr-gf u/ n2 0d 2i n0g/-0t o3-/a1d7d/r8e 1s s6-8c o2 r2o2n1a5v/i cr ou ns g r e s s - w e i g h s - n e w - m a s s i v e -
10 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG And, in the middle of a global pandemic, there’s an abregtuhme epnr itohrei t’ sy ,rei gvhe tn. Pi friot pmpei na gn sugprao wf l ai ni lgi noguUr .dSe. feiccoi tn. o m y m a y But, the time will come when we have to address this deficit spending—as the Secretar y says , whe n we’re i n “different times.” US Debt (in Trillions of Dollars)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: U.S. Department of Treasury, National Debt So, we need to ask: H ow will the future America address our b all ooning deficit ? Deficit Correction Tools Fdioresst,n’ltemt emaen fbuetucrleear. The “future America” I referenced generations—i t means our generations in t he fut ure. The deficit ha s grow n t oo fast a nd t oo la rge t o simply assume the problem can wait thirty years to fix. So how do we —as a co untry—fix t he deficit?
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 11 America can r educe our deficit in several wa ys, so let ’s loo k at the options and their likelihood of addressi ng the COVID-relat ed spending increases. • Reduce Government Spending — The government can reduce its deficit by reducing the amount of money it spends each year. While this sou nds a ppeal ing in theory, in p ract ice it is difficu lt for even the most fiscally committed President to achieve. That’s because the majority of U.S. sp ending is not dependent on new law s or spending bills Congress and the Preside nt c an control. Mandatory government spending—which includes Social Secur ity, Medicar e, Medicaid, and interes t on government debt— is usually more than 60 percent of total gover nment spending each year. 8 What’s more, the national appetite for spending is strong: Today’s voters are asking for more government spending, not less. In summary, C ongress likes to spend money. Americans, by and large, like benefits paid for by government spending. So, a dramatic r eduction in government spending seems, to me, like an unlikely solution to our deficit problem. • Quantitative Easing — The 2008 recession was the first time many Americans ever heard the term “quantitative easi ng.” Essentially , quantitative ea sing is when the government issues bonds to borrow money then buys back those bonds in times 8 Tax Policy Center. May 2020. “Briefing Book: A Citizen’s Guide to the Fascinating (Thoug h Ofte n Complex) Elements of the US Tax System.” hutntcposn:/t/rowllwabwle.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-much-spending-
12 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG of financial crisis. As we saw after the 2008 recession, t his approa ch can help, but it’ s n o panacea to address our bud get shortfalls . The deficit ha s continu ed t o grow since 2008, a nd it’ s unlikely this appr oach can revers e that trend now. The real question has become: H ow long can our government continue to run the money presses? • Taxes from Economic Growth — New tax revenue generates money the government can use to pay dow n the deficit. As our economy expands, new jobs ar e cr eated, new tr ansactions occur , and new services a re purchased— all potenti ally creating new tax revenue for the government. Unfortunatel y, it ’s uncl ear how soon sustained, robust economic growth will retur n. Our economy may be stymied for many years following the COVID pandemic. Which leads us to . . . • Taxes from Individuals — Here’ s an approach we’ve seen time and time again. Our government wants to spend more money. H ow does it get more money to spend? I t raises taxes on Americans. Sometimes this is through adjusting tax brackets, and sometimes this is through other changes to the U.S. tax code. Either way, the end result is more tax revenu e for t he IRS— and potentially less money for you to k eep. It’s li kely our government will attempt a combination of ablel l ioefv et h etshee s tgroavt eegr ni ems ei nn t t hwe i lyl e al er sa nt o mc ooms t e . hBeua tv, i lbyy of anr , twh ee approach of raising taxes. As outlined above, reduced
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 13 government spending is so unlikely we can consider it a non- syteaarrtserd. uEectoontohmeigc logbroalwitmhpiasctexopf ected at modest rates for COVID- 19. And, regardless of what the government decides to do around quantitative ea sing, it ’s clea r rising tax es a re at t he t op of a very short list of opt ions. The takeaway? It’s imperative your retirement is protected from all these options—and particular ly protected from a rising tax environment. A Marathon, Not a Sprint Do you know anyone who runs marathons? (If you do, I’m su re you know— marathon runners love to talk about running marathons.) One of my good friends is an amateur marathon ca oc rmo ps se tti ht oer .c Lo iuknet rmy aannyd ast oh ml e teet si m, sehse acroomu npde t tehs ei nwmo ral rda. tShhoen’ ss run in Washington Stat e an d Washington, D.C., in Europe, an d in South America. Tra ining for t hese ra ces ca n b e a chall enge beca use t he eimnvpiarcotnhmeernstucacreosusnads ahreurnunperc.oming race can dramatically Is the r ace taking place in a hilly location while s he has bee n training on flat ground? Will the marathon be at a higher elevat ion wit h low er ox ygen concentrat ion tha n she is used tmooartehcohmalele?nWgiinllgpfoorlluhteirotnobberehaigthhea?t the race site, making it H as she been training in 90 º F Texas, onl y t o r un the race in 5 0 º F Maine? These are all considerations athletes like my friend must address . Each o ne can d erai l th eir s uccess . The same is true for your retirement savings.
14 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG It’s not jus t the products you us e to s ave or how you chos e to i nves t. Your retirement assets live in an environment, and that environment has been forever changed by the government’s respon se t o COVID- 19. It’ s up t o you t o acknowl edge that environment and position yourself for success within it. So, let’s star t with the challenge you likel y know best : How to grow and protect your money with a long game approach.
CHAPTER THREE
Long Game Challenge #1: Growth & the Market By Neil Wilding ur n on F ox News or CNN . Pick up the Wall Street Journal or t he New York Times . Open up your hometown newspaper. Wh at wi ll yo u likely see ? Discussions of the market. Now , I don’t know if you’ re rea ding t his book in Janua ry or June. I don’t know if the marke t is up or do wn today . I do n’t know if commentators are feeling bearish or bullish on where stock s a re heading. But, I do kno w th at, whe n yo u tune into the news , there will Ibne tahdeiAscmusesriiocannoffitnhaenmciaalrkinedt.ustry, the stock marke t is a touchstone o f ne arly all f inanci al ad vice . And, for good reason: The stock market is the primary too l we us e to gr o w we alth. Do you have some of your retirement funds in mutual funds? Target date funds? Investment accounts? If so, congratulations ! You’re depending on the stock market for growth. T
15
16 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG There’s not hing w rong wit h that approach— most Ar emt i er er imc aenn ts af uv enrdss u. Bs eu tt h, ae ss tsoa cvke rms ,awr kee tn ae se da gt or ouwntdhe vr sethainc dl e tfho er market and where it may be headed in the years to come. A Childhood Passion I’ve been tr ad ing since I was eight year s old. No, not stocks. Not bonds. Not even commodities. (Well, not the commodities most people consider when investing their li fe s avings.) Like many kids, I traded baseball ca rds. My youthful enthusiasm for trading cards gave me ipnossi igthi ot sn i In gs tmi l ly craeltli roenm teondt af yu,npdas ritni ctuhlea rml ya rwk ehte. n i t c o m e s t o For example, I learned early on that, in baseball cards, rook ies often get all of t he attent ion. It wa s excit ing t o wat ch the emerging players and bet on which ones would make it bi g. However , the r eal car d values wer e not found with the excit ing rook ies but with veter an players who bui lt their careers wit h year aft er year of performance. After all, the H all of Fame doesn’t care if you have one great season —it ’s about performance over your lifetime. The same is true when it comes to your retirement strategy—H all of Fame retirements are built on success over the long game. It re minds me of a Babe Ruth quote I loved as a kid: “ySotuurdmy othneeyg.a”me, accept advice, keep fit, and, above all, save The perfect a dvice for a baseball-lovi ng kid who gre w up to be a market -focu sed adult.
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 17 The Bambino was right—abo ut base ball and reti rement spar ve ipnagr. i Tn gh efroer i sp omt eu nc ht i awl er icsakns . l eWa ren hbayv set ut od ysi enegkt haed vg iacme ef raonmd tahcoc os eu nwt si tsht a yu nf iitqouvee ri nt shieg hl ot sn.g Wr uen onfe er edt i rt eomme natk. eA nsdu,r ae b oovuer all, we ne ed to save money! A Long Game Look at the Market Sh oo ww hwaitl ldtoheast itthmi nekainn gt obtehiimn kplaocnt eg dt ei rnmt haeb po ou st tt h e m a r k e t , a n d -COVI D era? Throughout this book, when we reference the “market,” we ’ll largely be referri ng to the S& P 500®, which measures the 500 larges t stocks o n the natio nal exchanges . This is an index that economists often use as a pro xy for the over all health of the stock market . Lessons from History Imn a rdki es ct ui ss sai ntgr i ctkhye bme aasrtk. eI tt , c aI ’nl l cahcaknngoewdl readmg ea t iuc pa lf lryo ny te: a rT bh ye yaecahr (sometimes even day by day!), making future projections allenge . So, sometimes it’s helpful to look at the past to better understand th e pr ese nt. Look back at t he 1990s. The 1990s were booming days in the market. You might remember something called “Dart Funds.” These were funds where a stockbroker literally thre w a dar t at a shee t of stocks and invested i n whichever ones the dart hit . Y ou know what?
18 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG Dg oaor dt fmu nodnsewy . eTrhe emma ka ri nkge tgwo oads mg ooi nn eg yu! pE, vuepr,yut hpi. n g w a s m a k i n g We all kno w wh at happened after the feel- good year s of the ' 90s: th e d ot- com bubble burst. We started the ne w century i n 2000 with t hree straight y2e0a0r2s, tohf emNaArSkDe tA Ql o sl os sets .7F8rpoemr c Me natroc hf i tosf v2a0l u0e0. Tt oh eO c t o b e r o f S& P 500 ® fell nearl y 40 percent. 9 Many people’s retirement accounts were severely depleted. A running joke at the time was that 401(k En)ms heasdhebdeiennmreadrukecet dtutrom2o0i1l, (tkh)esg. overnment responded. After years of raising interest rates leading into the bubble, the F eder al Re serve f inally lo wered i nteres t r ates in 2 002. 10 As America emerged from the 2000 financial crisis, t he Ft heed rme at ur kr ne te dr et oc osvl oe wr eldy . r Ta ihsoi ns ge rwa teerse. Aonk da ,yf ryoema r2s .0 0M2o tsot 2o0f 0u8s, wa cecroeu tnrtysi, nbgu tt oa te al erans tb tahc ek mwahrakt ewt we ha sa dh el ol psitnign uosuar l or entgi r. e m e n t Then, the real estat e bubbl e burst in 2008, sending the markTehtiscrtaimshein, gthaegamina.rket crashed fast, with the S& P 500 ® losi ng 3 7 pe rce nt o f i ts v alue in a f e w we eks. 11 9 Yahoo Finance . “ GSP C Historical Prices.” ho dt t2p=s 1: /0/3f i5n8a4n9c 6e .0y0a &h oi not. ce or vma/l =q1udo &t ef /i l%t e 5r =E hGiSs Pt oCr/yh&i sf rt oe qr yu?epnecryi o= d1 1d =&9i n5c1l 7u 8d 2e A4 0d 0j u&s pt eedr i Close=true 10 Luka Nikolic. Foundati on for Economic Education. August 10, 2019. “A Tale of Two Bubbles: How the Fed Crashed th e Tech and th e Housin g Markets.” hanttdp-st:h/e/-fheoeu.osrign/ga-rmtiacrlekse/tsa/-tale-of-two-bubbles-how-the-fed-crashed-the-tech- 11 Yahoo Finance. “GSP C Historical Prices ” hr itot dp 2s :=/ 1/ 2f i 3n 0a n7 c6e8. 0y a0 h0 o&oi .nc toemr v/aql u= o1 tde&/ f%i l t5eEr G= hS Pi sCt o/ rhyi s&t of rreyq? upeenr icoyd=11=d1&1i 9n 9c l1u4d5e 6A0d0j u&spt ee dClose=true
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 19 Again, the government went to work. C ongress passed stimulus packages, bank bailout s, and other forms of new sp ending. The Fed low ered interest rat es once again—this time to historic lows. 12 From 2009 to 2019, the market saw an amazing bull run, arantdesowurergeokveeprnt mloewnt(mwoorrekeodn ttohiskeep it that way. Interest in the ne xt chapter) , and our economy began to grow. So, as we entered 2020, most sa vers felt lik e t hings w ere look ing prett y good. But we re th ey? Winners and Losers If we look at the last twenty years, it’s clear the market has bee n a rollercoaster ride: plenty of click-click-click rides up the h i ll and ple nty o f s cream- inducing dow nfall s, as w ell . As most financial professionals will tell you, you generally come out on top if you ride the stock market rollercoaster. Put anot her w ay: So far t his cent ury, if you didn’t get sa cnadr ebdu ay n wd hs ee lnl wt hhee nmt ha rekme ta rwk ae st wh ai gs hd, oi wf yn o, iuf yj uo us t dsi dt any’ te pd a tnhi ec course, you should be on top by now . Right? We ll, not q uite . The market may have recovered, but it doesn’t necessarily mean retirement accounts are flourishing. 12 Luka Nikolic. Foundati on for Economic Education. August 10, 2019. “A Tale of Two Bubbles: How the Fe d Crashe d the Tech an d the Housing Markets.” hanttdp-st:h/e/-fheoeu.osrign/ga-rmtiacrlekse/tsa/-tale-of-two-bubbles-how-the-fed-crashed-the-tech-
20 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG Whe n I talk to savers across the country , I like to ask: Ho w much do you think the stock market has returned on average this c entury ? C onsider that question yourself for a moment. For the first twent y yea rs of t his century— from 2000 to 2019—wh at did t he marke t r etur n on ave rage ? Go a hea d and w rit e down your a nsw er. Most people I ask guess 8 percent or 10 percent. A few people always guess 12 per cent or 14 percent— sometimes even more. So, it surprises most savers to learn the answer is 6.06 per cent.
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 21
S&P 500 ® Total Return: 2000-2019
Average Annual Return 6.06%
$40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000 $320,000 $340,000 $360,000
31.46%
21.83%
-4.38%
11.96%
13.69%1.38%
32.39%
16.00%
15.79% 5.49%
15.06% 2.11%
-9.10%
26.46%
10.88% 4.91%
-11.89%
28.68%
-37.00%
-22.10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Annual Total Return of the S&P 500®
Source: Y ahoo Financ e GSP C Historical Prices 2020
Chart shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results . That ’s right . The S&P 500 ® to tal retur n (includi ng dividends) has returned an average compounded return of around 6 perce nt so far this centur y. Of course , th at average i2s0t1h9e. aRnent uuranl sr ef ot ur rsno mf r oe mo n eJ a wn uhaor yi n1v,e 2s t0e0d0 o, nt o dDi fef ec reemnbt e r 3 1 , dates mg r iegaht tl y baef f ehci tgehde br yowr hl oe wt heerr, t ah ne dy wt hi tehi dr rienwv ef sr tommetnhte iwr oa cucl do ubnet during a market dip or a spike, but, from point to point, this period of the S&P 5 00 ® return ed 6. 06 percent a year. Now, I’m not saying 6 percent is good or ba d. It’ s just a lot less than pe ople th ink. And, it gets even worse.
22 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG That 6 percent average return is a gross return. As we all ko nf toe wn ,i ni nc vl ueds et mmeannt sa gaerme ehnotu fseeeds . i nS ov, esho imc lee so fo tr hpaot rgtrf oo lwi ot sh twh ai l tl get eaten by fees you pay to a financial company. And, if you accessed th at 6 per cent retur n in a tax- deferred account , lik e an IRA or 401(k), some of that growth will also get eaten up by f uture taxe s . As a saver, you took all that risk—riding t he roll er coast er through booms and busts—and , i n the end , i t netted yo u maybe 4 percent a year after fees and taxes. Fou r percent is okay, but it’ s not t he 12 percent sa vers a re oft en guessing. What Comes Next? Aoft2th0e08end of 2019, many experts wondered if the bull market - 2019 woul d continu e or cra sh. In March of 2 020 , we got pa rt of ou r answer. March was whe n the COVID- 19 pandemic fully hit America. By mid-March , businesses and schools were closi ng awcor roks isn tgh ef r oc omu nht or ym. eT, haonuds atnhdosu soaf nAdms emr i oc ar en ss turdadnes ni tliyo nf eo du nt do themselves without a job at all. 13 TBhye markets reacted. mid-March , the S&P 500 ® ha d fall en 26 percent . Since the initi al crash , the S&P 500 ® has jumped around, making it clear we have entered a new phase of market volatility. 13 TED (The Economic Daily). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 13, 2020. “Unemployment rate rises to record high 14.7 percent in April 2020.” 1ht4t-ppso:/in/tw-7w-pwe.rbclse.ngto-vin/-oappurbil/-2te0d2/02.h0t2m0/unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-high-
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 23 I’m concerned many savers don’t understand what volatilit y can do to their l ong- term savings. Take, for example, our chart above. From January 2000 to December 2019, the S& P 500 ® return ed an averag e of 6. 06 per cent a year . If we instead calculated that number from January 2000 to March 2020 (adding just three months to the chart), the S& P 500 ® return ed an averag e of 4. 42 percent a year. That’ s a dro p of near ly 1.7 percent a year across the twenty- year average. All because of a few crazy weeks of market volatility. $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000 $320,000 $340,000 $360,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Y ahoo Financ e GSP C Historical Prices 2020 Shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. markItebt egcos nthtienquueestthiiosn:tWurhbeurleendcoew? eMgoanfryom here? Does the experts— myself included—believe th e ans wer i s “y es.” -9.10% -11.89% -22.10% 28.68% 10.88%4.91% 15.79% 5.49% -37.00% 26.46% 15.06% 2.11% 16.00% 32.39% 13.69% 1.38% 11.96% 21.83% 4.86% 31.46% -26.15% $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 S&P 500 ® Total Return: 2000 - March 2020 Average Annual Return 4.42%
24 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG But, I’m not h ere t o sca re you wit h talk of t he next great cmraarskhe. tInmsteeaadn,sI’mforhetrhee to help you evaluate what a volatile equities-ex posed port ion of your retirement accounts, because this is an issue that’s goi ng to stick with us for many years to c ome. Why it Hurts So Much When the Market Crashes H c eel re eb’ rs aat ovreyr ymcooondc rwe ht ee ne xaa cmr pa sl eh eo df wmhayr ks ea tv es tras rmt s atyo nr oe tc obveeirn. a Following is a chart of t he growt h n eeded for recovery when the market drops: The Impact of Volatility
Growth needed for r ecovery Market Drop
That’s right. If the market drops 50 percent, your account nt heee dms at or kgerto wd r ob py p1e0d0 2p 2e r cpeenr ct et on tmi ank e2 0u0p2t haant dl ows se. nSto , uwp h 2e n8 per cent in 2003 , m any savers were sti ll under water: The y hadn’t earned b ack everything they had l ost .
THE NEW HOLISTIC RETIREMENT • 25 Let me put it another way. You have $10. You lose 50 percent of it. Now you have $5. You grow that money by 50 per cent. N ow you have $7.50 . You’r e s till $2.50 shor t of wh ere you st arted. The Impact of Volatility IUm. Sa. gmi naer kyeotuhhi satdo rt yo . sAa vme adr uk reitnsgo t bh ae dwyoorus t wdoe uc al dd, eo inn amv eo rdaegren, lose money every year. A market that saw not just one but two crashes that wiped out more than a third of your savings’ val ue. We fee l fo r ou r parent s an d grandparent s w ho l ived thherroeu’sgh that kind of market with the Great Depression. But a surprise: Their generat ion isn’t t he onl y one that ha d to save during one of the worst markets in history. You did, too . The yea rs 2000 t hrough 20 09 are estimated to be the single worst decade in S& P 500® history. You might have hea rd it call ed t he “lost deca de of investing” beca use t he market that decade ended lower than it started. How ba d wa s it? If you had a 401(k) with $100,000 in it, completel y invest ed in t he S&P 500 ® , 14 wh at would have happened over the firs t decade of this century ? We ll, loo k at the line o n the preceding chart marked, “Annual Total Return of the S& P 500 ® .” This represents your account value. Then, the market crashes from 2000 to 2002. It takes you four years t o earn 14 It's no t possible to inves t directly in an index. However, one can inves t in the stock s that make up the S&P 500 ® or purchase shares of a mutual f und that tracks the S&P 500 ® Index.
26 • RUBY, WILDING & SWANSBURG bac k wh at you’ve los t, and finally , by 2006 , you’re above water . T he n, in 2 008 , y o u lo se it all again. You saw some good years. The market was up 28 percent in 2003 a nd 26 percent in 2009. But , you used t hose b ig ga ins to earn back the money you lost when the market dropped. So, those gains r eally didn’t r eflect forwar d progr ess, did they I ? n fact, it’s even les s pr ogress than you think. Guess what your 401(k ) ea rned annuall y, on avera ge, fro m 2000 through 2009, if it was invested wholly int o “t he market? ” F our pe rce nt? T hree pe rce nt? The answer may surprise you. It’s negative 1 percent. That ’s right . For t he ent ire deca de, you lost about 1 percent on a vera ge per yea r. $180,000
$160,000
Average Annual Return -1.0%
$140,000
$120,000
5.49%
15.79%
$100,000
26.46%
-9.10%
4.91%
10.88%
$80,000
-11.89%
28.68%
-37.00%
$60,000
-22.10%
$40,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44 Page 45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51 Page 52 Page 53 Page 54 Page 55 Page 56 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 105 Page 106 Page 107 Page 108 Page 109 Page 110 Page 111 Page 112 Page 113 Page 114 Page 115 Page 116 Page 117 Page 118 Page 119 Page 120 Page 121 Page 122 Page 123 Page 124 Page 125 Page 126 Page 127 Page 128 Page 129 Page 130 Page 131Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator