Economic Outlook The MDTA owns and operates a large and well- diversified system that provides essential transportation infrastructure links in a high-volume market with limited competing facilities. The MDTA’s facilities include commuter travel routes and a portion of Interstate 95. The toll facilities have historically demonstrated low elasticity and are in affluent service areas that include the Baltimore and Washington D.C. metropolitan statistical areas. The facilities serve a varied mix of passenger and commercial traffic that pay tolls using E-ZPass, Pay-by-Plate, and Video Tolling. Ten-year traffic and revenue forecasts are prepared annually by independent consultants and are available on the MDTA’s website. Separate traffic and revenue forecasts are prepared for all legacy facilities, the Intercounty Connector, and the I-95 Express Toll Lanes. The following information on economic performance and the outlook is derived from the most recent reports. The forecasts rely on historical toll transaction and revenue trend information by vehicle classification, payment method, and facility, as well as socioeconomic and demographic trends locally, regionally, and nationally. Socioeconomic and demographic data that impact the forecast includes population, employment, income, gross regional product, inflation, and gasoline prices. Population: Since 2013, Maryland has exhibited stable population growth of 0.4 percent annually, which lags slightly behind the national average of 0.6 percent annually over the same time period. Within Maryland, population growth rates range from -0.1 percent in Western Maryland to 0.8 percent in Southern Maryland. Projected regional population growth is expected to follow similar trends over the next 10 years, with expected growth of 0.5 percent annually statewide.
Employment: Since 2013, nonfarm civilian employment growth in Maryland has exceeded total population growth and has trailed slightly behind the nation as a whole. Statewide employment changes have averaged 1.3 percent per year during this timeframe and is expected to grow an average of 1.2 percent annually through 2028, and 1.0 percent through 2033. Income: Median incomes in many of the counties containing toll facilities tend to be higher than the State as a whole and higher than the national average. Nationwide, per capita income in 2023 was $70,172, reflecting an average annual growth of 2.3 percent over the last decade. Historic per capita income in Maryland was $75,461 in 2023, with the Washington Suburban region enjoying the highest per capita incomes in the State and throughout much of the country, at $79,465. The Intercounty Connector is primarily located in Montgomery County, which is among the nation’s wealthiest counties. Per capita income in Maryland is forecasted to increase annually by about 1.5 percent through 2033. Gross Regional Product: Another fundamental economic indicator that has bearing on traffic demand is gross regional product (or gross domestic product/ gross state product, depending on the geographic focus). Since 2013, gross domestic product has averaged 2.3 percent growth annually nationwide. Growth rates in Maryland, both statewide and for all six major planning regions, have generally been lower than nationwide growth rates. Statewide average annual growth from 2013 to 2023 was 1.4 percent. The average annual growth rate is expected to be approximately 2.1 percent through 2028, and 1.9 percent through 2033.
Annual Comprehensive Financial Report For Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2024 | 21
Made with FlippingBook - PDF hosting