As noted in our original analysis, government as a sector is expected to undergo a pattern most similar to the construction industry, with lagged negative impacts following initial growth due to stimulus attempts. The need for stimuli remains apparent. However, the pressure on local and state finances will constrain their ability to respond and eventually even impact the federal government. The commercial real estate sector continues to operate in a wait-and-see mode as office spaces remain empty, brick-and-mortar retail struggles and other special purpose tenants face capacity restrictions. There remains an expectation (hope?) that once the vaccine is widespread and the pandemic under control, some resumption of normal working and living patterns will return. However, the longer the pandemic has hold, the more likely it becomes that prior patterns will be permanently altered as employers, workers and consumers find themselves less physically tied to a specific location or proximity to certain supporting development. The residential real estate sector has been the beneficiary of this temporary and perhaps more permanent shift, with home sales supported by low interest rates and a reassessment of lifestyle priorities. Hanging over both sectors and the financial sector as well is the lingering problem of rent and mortgage delinquencies due to loss of employment and revenue. Support from the Federal Reserve will continue to mitigate the problem for the financial sector for the short term. However, a reckoning must ultimately be made. The information sector has seen a significant boost in the dramatic increase in demand for remote access to many facets of life formerly obtained in person. New software, new network needs and new uses for remote technology cause the information sector to actually see increased output last year of as much as one percent or more, based on extrapolations of three quarters of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The introduction of 5g technology and networks currently underway will boost the sector further. Within the broader discussion of infrastructure, high-speed internet and cellular service has been highlighted by the struggles of remote learning, shopping and medical care access in rural areas and amongst lower-income families. It appears likely that whatever infrastructure legislation eventually gets passed, if any, will include a significant focus on broadband service expansion. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of updated information, we estimate the decline in tribal revenue from other economic sectors equaled 8.3 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal revenue from other sectors of 5.6 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the combined sectors 3.2 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery is forecast to occur, with revenue up 4.6 percent from 2021. Total tribal revenue from other sectors in 2022 is forecast to exceed 2019 levels by 1.2 percent. This information is presented in the graph on the following page.
∴ OTHER INDUSTRY SECTORS
51
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs