In June of last year, faced with a global health and economic crisis unseen in generations, we felt the need to take the time to research and analyze the potential patterns and impacts of the pandemic and associated mitigation efforts on tribal economies, for our own knowledge and benefit and for our clients and Indian country as a whole. That the extraordinary crisis was occurring in the midst of an election year and the greatest surge in racial and social unrest in decades only added to the uncertainty. It was both predictable and already evident that the pandemic and accompanying economic upheaval would affect Native Americans disproportionately. The questions were: how badly, how long, and how to recover? Based upon the information available at the time and assumptions regarding the course of the virus and efforts to contain it, KlasRobinson Q.E.D.* extrapolated the available information, combined with evidence from the history of other pandemics and other economic crises, to issue an initial prognosis for tribal economies and prescriptions for actions tribes could take to reduce negative impacts and speed recovery. In September, armed with three months of additional data, but before any vaccine, before the election and before the worst of the daily caseloads and deaths, we updated our prognosis to reflect certain patterns already emerging. By that time, the concept of stay-at-home orders had effectively been abandoned and business shut downs and other restrictions had been reduced despite significant increases in caseloads and continued increases in deaths. While the even more severe spike in cases and deaths in the fall and early winter led to a partial resumption of more stringent restrictions on business, travel and personal activity, they were more narrowly targeted geographically and by type. The primary tool for pandemic control became mask wearing, which had problems with popularity and compliance in itself. The limits of that tool as the primary public health response in the absence of other controls on human interaction have been clearly seen, primarily due to predictable compliance issues. However, the collective revulsion at the severity of the economic effects of more severe restrictions and a restiveness at all levels over the length of time they were imposed has severely limited any other pandemic control options. As already seen in September of last year and tragically even more obvious subsequently, the results from a public health perspective have been an undeniable failure by any objective standard. From an economic perspective, the results have been mixed, but better overall than originally feared. While the economy has been severely affected by the pandemic even where public health measures were minimal, there has been definite evidence of resiliency in the economy and a continued strong desire on the part of business, consumers and government to resume as much economic activity as possible as soon as possible.
* KlasRobinson Q.E.D. has considerable experience in analyzing tribal economic development. For a profile of the company, please see our website at www.klasrobinsonqed.com
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