We are now a full year since the pandemic began in the U.S. and more than eight months since our original report. Vaccines are now being distributed and the case and death rates have fallen significantly since the overwhelming peaks in December and January. The election has occurred and a new administration is in place, allowing for greater certainty in governmental actions going forward. Year-end figures for key economic measures are now available, although many more detailed statistics will not be released for weeks or months. A smaller relief measure was passed late last year and a second one is likely to pass in some form within the next 60 days. There is a collective and reasonable sense that an end, if still several months away, is visible on the horizon. This does not mean that either the pandemic or the economic crisis have come to an end as yet. Mutated versions of the virus that are more easily transmissible are becoming dominant. Despite the urgency, vaccinations will inevitably take more time, measured in months, not days or weeks. There is a race between vaccinations and the disease mutations that we may not win. There is also some question as to whether any of the mutations may reduce or circumvent the effectiveness of the vaccines currently being used. From an economic perspective, new patterns of work, shopping and life in general have taken hold and may produce permanent changes in business patterns even after the pandemic is brought to heel. The multiple relief and stimulus efforts that have been undeniably necessary and effective must come to an end eventually. When they do, and when governments and businesses reckon with the hidden costs and return to regular practices, areas of weakness in the economy, hidden or softened so far, will become painfully obvious and require redress. Even with better than expected, or at least feared, economic results to date, potential recessionary and inflationary pressures in the future cannot be completely dismissed. While plenty of unknowns remain, the true crisis phase will indeed come to an end within the next few months. Indian country, along with the rest of the country, will be able to breathe a sigh of relief and then move ahead with the hard work of recovery and new growth. With the end of the pandemic and the movement to long-term recovery and growth, the need for this specific type of crisis analysis will subside. This will be the last update of our pandemic analysis. We look forward with all of Indian country to shifting our efforts to regaining lost ground and advancing to a brighter future.
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