GENERAL
This section describes, in brief, the findings and conclusions derived from our updated analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation efforts on tribal economies. This overview includes our updated assumptions for the course of the pandemic and our updated forecasts for tribal economic damage and recovery. However, the estimates presented, along with the information in this section as a whole, are meant as a summary of, not a substitute for, the body of the report, which contains additional information and detail critical to a full understanding of the bases for the estimates made and the context within which they were formed.
PROGNOSIS
As of February 3, 2021, the United States accounted for 25.4 percent of all COVID-19 cases worldwide, 146 percent higher than the next closest country, and 19.9 percent of all deaths worldwide, more than 98 percent higher than the next closest country, according to data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The U.S. ranks 77 th out of 173 countries listed in terms of the case fatality rate, recorded deaths to recorded cases, meaning 76 countries have a lower rate. The U.S. ranks 164 th out of 173 countries in deaths per capita, meaning only nine countries have had more deaths per capita. Many of the countries included in the Johns Hopkins figures have had very few cases. While no country can compare to the number of U.S. cases, it is reasonable to narrow the comparative analysis to countries with significant caseloads. There were 33 countries that had experienced at least 500,000 cases as of February 3 rd . Of those 33 countries, the U.S. is tied for sixth best in terms of its case fatality rate but fifth worst in terms of deaths per capita. The toll in Indian country has been particularly severe. According to IHS data, a total of 1,951,037 people had been tested at IHS facilities as of February 2 nd . The tests resulted in 179,279 positive confirmed cases of the virus with a positivity rate of 9.9 percent, over two percentage points higher than the U.S. average. According to the CDC, American Indian and Alaska Native populations are 1.8 times more likely than non- Hispanic Whites to get COVID-19, 4.0 times more likely to be hospitalized and 2.6 times more likely to die from the disease. The concept of large-scale shutdowns of all but essential activities has been abandoned, even in the areas taking the most aggressive public health mitigation steps. Mask usage has become the primary means of combating public spread, despite acknowledged weaknesses in its effectiveness. While more narrowly targeted restrictions on personal and business activities remain in use, the clear trend is to minimize such restrictions, even in the face of caseloads that surpass the levels of last spring.
∴ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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