Lodging facilities in rural areas are experiencing a much lower hit from the crisis than their urban counterparts. Businesses dependent upon groups and large-scale events are still suffering regardless of location. But those that derive the majority of their revenue from individual, couple or family involvement are finding business volumes close to or perhaps even better than pre-pandemic levels. The same recently published working paper from the USDA Economic Research Service that referenced 2020 declines in food away from home spending found that economic recessionary effects caused only approximately one percent of the decline. The remaining over 22 percent decline was primarily the result of forced closures and capacity restrictions. That is strongly positive news for future post-pandemic recovery prospects, since easing of constraints should quickly result in a reversal of negative spending trends. Indeed, small-scale versions of that pattern have already been observed when heavier restrictions have been lifted at the local or even state level as case and mortality counts decline from alarming peaks. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of newly available data, we estimate that the decline in non- casino tribal tourism, lodging and leisure revenue equaled 31.4 percent in 2020. For 2021 we now forecast an increase in tribal tourism and leisure revenue other than from casinos of 31.6 percent from 2020 levels as a rapid recovery begins, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, still leaving the industry 9.7 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery and new growth is forecast to occur, with revenue up 14.1 percent from 2021 leading to the surpassing of 2019 revenue by over three percentage points. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting The effects of government relief/stimulus efforts were particularly evident and important for the agriculture industry. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, cash farm incomes were actually up in 2020. However, the increase was almost entirely due to government subsidies. Direct farm payments from federal government programs more than doubled in 2020 compared to 2019. When compared to 2018, payments were up over three times and compared to 2015 payments were up over four times. The initial increases prior to last year were primarily due to subsidies paid to compensate farmers for devastating losses due to trade wars with China and other countries. However, the doubling in 2020 was directly related to mitigation efforts from the pandemic.
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