Cash income from animals and products fell 5.4 percent in 2020, due to the impact of more at home than away from home dining, which typically involves less beef consumptions and meat consumption in general. Cash income from crops was up 5.5 percent, although crop figures also include CCC loans that may have distorted the year- to-year change. Some of the increase was definitely a real impact from the same shift to dining at home, which boosted food purchases for at home consumption. The February working paper from the USDA ERS that has already been referenced also found a 3.5 percent increase in consumer expenditures for food at home purchases. Other farm- related cash income was down 1.6 percent from 2019. According to gross output data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis through the third quarter of last year, the agriculture sector as a whole was on pace to end the year down less than one percent, depending upon fourth quarter outcomes. Indian agriculture does not appear to have been as fortunate. According to a survey conducted by the Intertribal Agriculture Council, 86 percent of respondents said they had been negatively affected by the pandemic. Cost increases averaging 32 percent had affected 50 percent of survey respondents. International sales decreases averaging 57 percent had affected 93 percent of respondents. Additional negative impacts by percent of respondents included loss of future sales (37 percent), supply chain disruption (35 percent) and loss of cash flow reserves (35 percent) amongst others. As previously noted, outdoor activities, including hunting and fishing, have enjoyed a new spike in interest due to the greater perceived safety of being outdoors and the lack of many indoor recreation options. That spike has not been enough, however, to compensate for the difficulties in the agriculture sector and the loss of interstate and international travel, both of which provide important hunting and fishing demand. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of updated information, we have estimated that tribal agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting revenue declined 6.9 percent in 2020. For 2021, we now forecast an increase in tribal agricultural revenue of 5.4 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the sector 1.9 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery and actual new growth is forecast to occur, with revenue up 2.9 percent from 2021. Total tribal agricultural revenue in 2022 is forecast to exceed 2019 levels by one percent. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Mining & Extraction This sector reeled from the double impact of pandemic driven reductions in demand and a price war between major producers late last spring. While the price war ended, the drop in demand has continued and is one change that is likely to extend even beyond the conclusion of the pandemic.
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