Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of spending and production data over the first three quarters, we estimate that the decline in tribal manufacturing revenue for 2020 equaled approximately 10.8 percent. For 2021, we now forecast an increase in tribal manufacturing revenue of 9.9 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 2.0 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, near full recovery is forecast to occur, with revenue up 1.7 percent from 2021. Tribal manufacturing revenue should surpass 2019 levels on a month-to-month basis by late 2022 or early 2023. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Wholesale Trade Tied as it is to, or caught between, the manufacturing and retail sectors, wholesale trade has demonstrated a similar pattern to the other two, with a late surge in revenue mitigating but not eliminating sharp declines earlier in the year. All three sectors have benefitted greatly from the already established online ordering and shipping infrastructure. While the early supply chain disruptions were serious, all three sectors, manufacturing, wholesale trade and retail trade have been able to rapidly adjust the flow of goods to take advantage of dramatic increases in online ordering to mitigate the effects of the current crisis and position for recovery. The surge in the second half of 2020, despite the late-fall spike in COVID-19 cases, indicates the potential for a faster recovery than previously expected. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of updated information, we estimate that tribal wholesale trade revenue declined 12.5 percent in 2020. For 2021, we now forecast an increase in tribal wholesale trade revenue of 10.7 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 3.2 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery and new growth is now forecast to occur, with revenue up 7.0 percent from 2021. At that level, wholesale revenue in Indian country will surpass 2019 levels by 3.6 percent in 2020. This information is presented in the graph on page 46. Retail Trade The second-half surge in the wholesale sector, referenced above, was driven by a surge in retail spending that was not yet visible at the time of our update last September due to time lags in data reporting. Some of the surge was actually a transfer of spending from other sectors amongst the service industries, such as food at home instead of dining out, and purchases of RV and camping equipment instead of staying hotels. As previously noted, a working paper by the Economic Research Service of the USDA published this month found a 3.5 percent increase in food at home spending last year. The surge was also supported by the massive income supports provided by PPP loans and direct payments of various types under the CARES act.
∴ OTHER INDUSTRY SECTORS
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