Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and updated information on sector trends during the initial stages of the pandemic, we estimate the decline in tribal transportation and warehousing revenue equaled 4.7 percent for 2020. However, for 2021, we now forecast an increase in tribal transportation and warehousing revenue of 6.5 percent from 2020 levels, pushing the sector past estimated 2019 levels by 1.5 percent. In 2022, growth is forecast to continue at a slower pace, with revenue up 4.1 percent from 2021, resulting in total revenue up 5.7 percent from estimated 2019 levels. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Other Industry Sectors Other sectors include utilities, the majority of the service sector group other than tourist and leisure-related services, and government. Most industries in these categories are expected to see patterns similar to those already discussed, although generally not as severe. While some service businesses, particularly personal services such as beauty salons and fitness centers, have been hit every bit as severely as food service and retail and will continue to suffer in much the same way, the bulk of services are not as consumer driven and less susceptible to pandemic driven restrictions. Two service sectors worthy of note are education and health services. Education has continued to struggle into the fall as a once hoped for resumption of normal activity level with the new school year fell prey to the realities of the ongoing pandemic. Nevertheless, there is a clear effort at all levels to return to as close to normal activity as quickly as possible, with some hopeful signs in the mostly successful resumption of professional sports and moderate success for college sports, with the money they generate. The late-December supplemental relief bill included $82 billion for education, boosting the sector. However, constant start-stop in-person/remote learning shifts are proving costly. Transportation of students, long the bugbear of education officials, has been complicated by reduced capacity levels and driver illnesses. While the healthcare sector suffered ironic declines in the midst of a health crisis due to reductions in elective surgeries and visits for anything other than COVID-19, there appears to be some positive movement back toward a more normal demand pattern, albeit with continued pandemic-driven operating changes to reduce spread. We do anticipate that trend to continue and intensify in the coming year now that vaccines are available. We also expect healthcare businesses of all types to continue to improve their pandemic and post-pandemic operating models to reduce the economic strain on the sector. Government funding availability for IHS remains a question mark in the coming years, depending upon when governmental budgetary emphasis shifts from economic stimulus to deficit reduction. However, we do not expect that until 2022 at the earliest and perhaps not until 2023.
∴ OTHER INDUSTRY SECTORS
49
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs