3. CONTEXT & EXISTING CONDITIONS Development in the Bloomingdale and Lithia communities has resulted in increased traffic volumes, traffic congestion, and travel safety issues along arterial corridors within the study area. Growth within and to the south and southeast of the study area has contributed to increases in peak period travel along Lithia Pinecrest Road, Bloomingdale Avenue, and Lumsden Road corridors to and from regional employment centers west and north of the study area. To support efforts to identify potential transportation improvements for the study, evaluations of population and employment projections as well as safety and crash data was undertaken. Summaries of these analyses follow. 3.1 Existing Population/Employment & Projected Growth Projected population and employment growth in the study area is mostly concentrated along the western edges of Brandon near I-75 and southeast of the study area along Fishhawk Boulevard. The Brandon Corridors and Mixed Use Centers Pilot Program evaluated redevelopment potential within the greater Brandon area. As shown in Figure 3, the Brandon area itself is mostly built out. Future development is anticipated to occur in areas to the south of the Alafia River between US 41 and the Balm Riverview Road corridor. Using the existing population and employment estimates and 2040 projections from the TBRPM v8.2, the study team evaluated the existing (2020) and future (2040) number of residents and workers within the study area. (The 2040 projections were used because the 2045 estimates were not available at the time of the analysis.) In 2020, the study area is anticipated to have approximately 240,000 residents and 94,000
employees. By 2040, these numbers are expected to grow to about 286,000 residents and 123,000 employees. Overall, the area is anticipated to see a 19 percent change in residents and a 30 percent change in employees from 2020 to 2040. To better understand the spatial distribution of new growth projected for the study area between 2020 and 2040, the change in population and employment density was calculated for each study area TAZ. As shown in Figures 4 to 7, the 2020 employment and population densities within the study area are low, with the majority of the TAZs having less than 10 residents or employees per acre. Population and employment densities are expected to grow modestly by 2040. Figures 8 and 9 show the TAZs where more significant changes to population and employment density are expected. As shown on these figures, the following areas within and around the study area expected to see the most significant increases in residents and employees by 2040: The Brandon Main Street area just east of the Brandon Town Center shopping mall andWestfield Brandon Mall is projected for increases in residential density. Areas along the I-75 between SR 60 and Bloomingdale Avenue are projected for increases in employment. New residential density is projected outside the study area to the south of the Alafia River south of Boyette Road and Fishhawk Boulevard along the Balm Riverview and Balm Boyette Road corridors. The eastern areas of Brandon are mostly built out, with relatively modest potential for increases in population, and little growth is expected to the southeast of Fishhawk Ranch.
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