finance can implement the just transition. This will involve finance ministries, central banks and financial institutions, multilateral and national development banks, and commer- cial financial institutions as well as business, trade unions and citizens. Many decisions need to be taken beyond COP29, but the UNFCCC is perhaps the best opportunity for focused attention, following the approval of the world’s first dedicated work programme in 2023. Three priorities stand out. First, the primary goal of this year’s COP is the agreement of the new collective quantified goal to provide adequate, accessible and affordable finance to achieve net zero, build resilience and pay for loss and damage in emerging markets and developing countries. The Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimates that those countries, excluding China, will need $1 trillion in external financing every year by 2030 for climate and nature action, a consider- able jump from the existing $100 billion climate finance goal. Around $600 billion of this needs to come as international private finance, more than 15 times higher than current levels. Much will require partnerships with multilateral develop- ment banks and other development finance institutions to reduce risks, for example through co-investments and guar- antees. The full $1 trillion must be invested in line with just transition principles, including ensuring respect for human rights, along with the provision of dedicated funds for specific priorities in EMDCs (such as phasing out fossil fuels, sustain- able transport and ending deforestation). Second, COP29 should clearly signal to governments that the next round of contributions needs the just transition at their heart. At the end of 2023, only 31% of NDCs referenced the just transition to varying degrees. The deadline for the updated NDCs is February 2025, and COP29 could show what ambitious and effective just transition policy looks like, with clear fiscal policies to support industrial, regional and labour market policies, including skills development and social protection, as well as rules and incentives to mobi- lise private capital. The NDCs need to be supplemented by comprehensive national transition plans with justice con- siderations integrated throughout, which could be the basis for issuing sovereign bonds. Third, COP29 needs to boost mainstreaming the just tran- sition into the routine practices of business and finance institutions. Supporting the transition is necessary to build public trust and develop the human and social capital needed
for a successful shift to a net zero and resilient economy. From fragmentation to cooperation One way to do this is to integrate the social dimension into the climate transition plans that companies and financial institutions are both vol- untarily and increasingly required to produce. In the United Kingdom and the European Union, the publi- cation of climate transition plans is becoming mandatory. As part of the UK’s Transition Plan Taskforce, advice was produced on how to embed just transition principles across the five pillars of a good climate plan: founda- tions, implementation, engagement (with value chains, government and stakeholders), as well as metrics and governance. The G20’s Sustainable Finance Working Group is also pool- ing best practices on how to move ahead with “credible, robust and just transition plans”, which COP29 could support and bring to universal atten- tion. These plans can be the basis for raising capital to implement the just transition, for example, through sustainability-linked bonds and loans. Market rules for the broader arena of transition finance must also incor- porate the implications for people as workers, communities, suppliers and consumers. At this time of global fragmentation, getting global cooperation on financ- ing the just transition could be viewed as a hopeless quest. But another way of looking at this would be to view financing the just transition as the glue needed to put climate action in the service of burning social needs.
At the end of 2023, only 31% of NDCs referenced the just transition to vary- ing degrees. 31 %
Æ NICK ROBINS N ÞØàÍä×ÞãèÞèÖåçäÛÚèèäçÞãåçÖØéÞØÚÛäçèêèéÖÞãÖ×áÚěãÖãØÚÖééÝÚÇäãÙäãÎØÝääáäÛÀØäãäâÞØèÖãÙËäáÞéÞØÖáÎØÞÚãØÚÖãÙÚíÚØêéÞëÚÙÞçÚØéäçäÛ éÝÚÇÎÀąèÅêèéÏçÖãèÞéÞäãÁÞãÖãØÚÇÖ×ËçÞäçéäßäÞãÞãÜéÝÚÇÎÀÞã $ÉÞØàìÖèØäÙÞçÚØéäçäÛéÝÚÐÉÀãëÞçäãâÚãéąèÄãæêÞçîÞãéäÖÎêèéÖÞãÖ×áÚ ÁÞãÖãØÚÎîèéÚâéÝÚÝÚÖÙäÛÃν¾ąè¾áÞâÖéÚ¾ÝÖãÜÚ¾ÚãéçÚäÛÀíØÚááÚãØÚÖãÙÝÚÖÙäÛèêèéÖÞãÖ×áÚÖãÙçÚèåäãèÞ×áÚÞãëÚèéâÚãéÖéÃÚãÙÚçèäã Âáä×ÖáÄãëÚèéäçèÃÚÝÖèÖáèäìäçàÚÙÖééÝÚÀêçäåÚÖã¾äââÞèèÞäãÖãÙéÝÚ½êèÞãÚèè¾äêãØÞáÛäçÎêèéÖÞãÖ×áÚ¿ÚëÚáäåâÚãéÃÚÞèéÝÚØäÛäêãÙÚç äÛËáÖãÚéÏçÖØàÚçÖãÙ¾Öç×äãÏçÖØàÚç
@NVJRobins1 : justtransitionfinance.org
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