Brendon Kearney Real Estate SAN FRANCISCO 2025 YEAR-IN-REVIEW Market Update
DEAR FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS,
I don’t take this work for granted.
Helping people buy, sell, or simply decide what comes next is deeply personal. These aren’t transactions — they’re moments that carry real weight. My responsibility is to meet that weight with care, discretion, and clarity. If we worked together this year — or if you reached out just to talk things through — thank you. Your trust is never assumed, and it’s never taken lightly. My role isn’t to push decisions. It’s to quiet the noise until the right decision becomes obvious. That principle guided every conversation and every strategy in 2025.
As we look ahead, I’m grateful for the relationships that continue to grow year after year — professionally and personally.
My hope for you in the year ahead is simple: meaningful connection, great food, honest conversation, and moments that slow time just enough to notice them. And when decisions present themselves, may you meet them with confidence and clarity.
WARMLY,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2025 AT A GLANCE
2025 wasn’t a year of bold bets.
It was a year of deliberate ones.
San Francisco real estate moved away from urgency and toward intention. Buyers slowed down. Sellers became more strategic. And the strongest outcomes came not from reacting to headlines — but from planning ahead. Political uncertainty early in the year pushed many to the sidelines. By fall, renewed confidence — fueled by AI investment, capital returning to the city, and expanding tech execution — brought momentum back.
But this wasn’t a market that rewarded speed.
It rewarded preparation.
Homes that sold best were clear in their pricing, thoughtful in their presentation, and honest about their position in the market. Buyers who succeeded weren’t chasing — they were anchored. The takeaway is simple: 2025 rewarded clarity over urgency, strategy over speed, and certainty over speculation.
2025 SAN FRANCISCO MARKET RECAP
• Days on market increased modestly, giving buyers more room to think and negotiate • Well-prepared, correctly priced homes still sold — often decisively • Listings anchored to yesterday’s pricing typically needed adjustments to regain momentum WHAT WORKED IN 2025 • Pricing conversations grounded in current buyer behavior • Thoughtful preparation that reduced uncertainty • Negotiations anchored in facts — and emotional discipline • Timing decisions aligned with life, not headlines When concerns were named — rates, affordability, timing — clarity followed. Not because the market became easy, but because decisions became intentional. THE PART YOU WON’T SEE ON A CHART Behind every transaction was a real life moment: • a family choosing stability • a first-time buyer stepping forward with confidencea seller prioritizing certainty over “testing the market” • an investor choosing patience over pressure Real estate is rarely just about property. It’s about making meaningful decisions under uncertainty — and navigating those moments well.
2025 WASN’T ABOUT SPEED, IT WAS ABOUT CERTAINTY
If this market felt harder to read, you weren’t imagining it.
Early 2025 unfolded cautiously. Political uncertainty — domestic and global — pushed many buyers and sellers to the sidelines. The market moved, but deliberately.
Then, in the fall, momentum returned.
Not from a single event, but from a convergence: massive public and private investment, accelerating adoption of generative AI, renewed confidence in technology, and a sharp increase in capital flowing back into San Francisco. Companies moved from experimentation to execution. Spending followed. People followed.
And yet — this wasn’t a market that rewarded haste.
The best outcomes consistently came from one thing: preparation.
Homes that performed best had a clear path before they ever hit the market. Buyers who succeeded weren’t chasing — they were anchored.
Clarity over noise. Strategy over speed. Calm over reaction.
THE MARKET, AT A GLANCE • Prices remained relatively stable overall, with meaningful neighborhood-level variation
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026
The next market cycle won’t reward rushing.
It will reward preparation, calm execution, and smart positioning.
And if you’re thinking, “I’m not sure what my next move is yet,” that’s not a problem.
That’s often the strongest place to start.
NOTABLE SALES | NOE VALLEY
4141 23RD STREET $6,000,000 | Seller Representation
This sale was never about noise.
Our clients were out of the area and wanted a low‑profile process with minimal disruption. Early interest confirmed value, but buyers struggled to visualize the lifestyle. We paused, recalibrated, and made a targeted cosmetic refresh that clarified the story. Four days later, the home sold at a record price — decisively and without stress.
No chasing. No stress. Just clear strategy — and 20% over asking.
SELLER PERSPECTIVE
NOTABLE SALES | NOE VALLEY
3961 25TH STREET $4,995,000 | Seller Representation
This sale was about patience.
The sellers were ready to downsize — but not at the expense of value. Preparation expanded beyond the original plan, requiring honest conversations and steady resolve.
Once complete, the home entered the market fully aligned with buyer expectations.
The result: a record-setting price per square foot.
Objective, pragmatic advice — always in our best interest.
SELLER PERSPECTIVE
2025 SAN FRANCISCO MARKET STATISTICS
The market didn’t surge. It steadied.
Over the past year, San Francisco residential prices rose 1.7% , inventory averaged 2.28 months , homes sold in 39 days , and sellers received 105.1% of asking price.
This is not a market driven by urgency — but it remains decisively seller-leaning.
What changed in 2025 wasn’t demand. It was behavior.
Buyers slowed down, underwrote decisions more carefully, and stopped chasing marginal listings. Sellers who priced with precision — not nostalgia — were rewarded quickly and often above ask. Those anchored to yesterday’s market found resistance. After record pricing in 2021, the market absorbed a historic shock in 2022 as interest rates more than doubled. That reset sidelined both buyers and sellers longer than many expected — not because desire disappeared, but because certainty did. Rates eased modestly. More importantly, capital returned. AI investment, IPO liquidity, and renewed confidence in San Francisco’s economic engine injected real fuel into the market — not speculative heat, but functional demand.
The takeaway is subtle but important:
Liquidity returned before confidence fully did. And markets that re-anchor well tend to move next with purpose.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR MARKET PERFORMANCE
Sales volume rose 9.1%, prices climbed modestly, and homes sold faster — all while inventory tightened meaningfully. That combination matters. Rising volume without runaway pricing signals confidence without excess. Buyers are participating again, but discipline remains intact. Sellers are regaining leverage, but only when listings are honest, prepared, and correctly positioned. This is how healthy markets behave.
2025
TOTAL SALES
VS 2024
CHANGE
4,927
4,517
↑9.1%
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
$1.399M
$1.375M ↑1.7%
AVG $ / SF $1,039
$1,023
↑1.6%
DAYS ON MARKET
39
41
↓4.9%
MONTHS SUPPLY
2.3
2.8
↓17.9%
NOTABLE SALES | NOE VALLEY
4362 23RD STREET $2,850,000 | Buyer Representation
This win required persistence.
With a baby on the way and location as the priority, value mattered as much as timing. After multiple offer rounds — even after the property was briefly withdrawn — we stayed engaged.
Eventually, the right moment arrived.
Meticulous guidance turned a complex purchase into a confident one.
BUYER PERSPECTIVE
NOTABLE SALES | FAIRMOUMT HEIGHTS
1781 SANCHEZ STREET $2,000,000 | Buyer Representation
Market knowledge and long‑term perspective made all the difference.
This was about strategy, not budget.
The goal was clear: Proximity to Noe Valley — even if it meant renovation.
A same‑as‑cash offer, crafted with precision, made the difference.
BUYER PERSPECTIVE
The right structure won the home.
CASE STUDY: A 2025 CONDOMINIUM PURCHASE COMPARISON
ESTIMATED VALUE & EQUITY (2025) Mortgage balance (both): ~$790,000
Two buyers purchased condominiums in 2015 - one in vibrant South Beach, the other in the more residential Dolores Heights neighborhood.
Dolores Heights • Estimated value: ~$1,395,000 • Total equity: ~$605,000 • ROI Annualized (nominal): ~9.1% South Beach • Estimated value: ~$1,090,000 • Total equity: ~$300,000 • ROI Annualized (nominal): ~1.9%
Scenario (Both Buyers) • Purchase price (2015): $1,250,000 • Down payment: $250,000 (20%) • Loan: 30‑yr fixed ~3.75%
A 10-YEAR PERFORMANCE CHECK
From 2015 to 2025, SFAR MLS data shows a clear split between South Beach and Dolores Heights.
South Beach — higher density and investor-heavy — experienced sharper peaks and deeper corrections, particularly after rate shock and excess inventory collided in 2022.
Dolores Heights remained insulated by scarcity and end-user demand, maintaining pricing power, shorter market times, and consistent over-asking sales.
Same purchase year. Same leverage. Very different outcomes.
In San Francisco condos, where you buy often matters more than when you buy.
BOTTOM LINE: South Beach favors portfolio strategy, yield, and flexibility, while Dolores Heights favors lifestyle, stability, and long-term equity preservation. The better choice depends on investment goals versus use-value—not headline performance.
SHOULD I SELL OR HOLD MY SOUTH BEACH CONDO?
FINAL VERDICT Buying in South Beach did not outperform renting in South Beach over this period.
BEST STRATEGY IN 2025 • Only sell when lifestyle or liquidity demands it • Hold, rent, and allow amortization to compound quietly • Treat the 3.75% mortgage as the asset—a long- term hedge against inflation
However, selling today would crystallize the weakest possible outcome.
• ROI Annualized (nominal): ~1.9% This Is No Longer A Market-Timing Decision. It’s A Balance-Sheet Decision.
NOTABLE SALES | PACIFIC HEIGHTS
2121 WEBSTER STREET, NO. 503 $4,000,000 | Buyer Representation
Privacy was the priority.
This client required discretion, security, and precision. Public listings weren’t the answer.
Through off‑market access and trusted relationships, we quietly secured the right residence.
No competition. No exposure. Just the right outcome.
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME MARKET Supply didn’t just tighten. It disappeared.
Single-family homes remain the most supply- constrained asset class in San Francisco — and the data reflects it. In 2025: • Median prices rose 5.6% • Inventory averaged just 1.2 months • Homes sold in 24 days • Sellers captured 107.8% of asking price
Fewer homes sold — yet prices rose sharply.
That’s not speculation. That’s pressure. San Francisco is not building more single- family neighborhoods. Demand, however, continues to compound — driven by family formation, lifestyle preference, and long-term tax advantages under Prop 13.
This is scarcity behaving exactly as economics predicts.
2025
TOTAL SALES UNITS
VS 2024
YOY CHANGE
2,290
2,067
↑10.8%
MEDIAN $ (M) $1,700
$1,610
↑5.6%
AVG $ / SF $1,057
$1,023
↑3.3%
DAYS ON MARKET 24
27
↓11.1%
LIST PRICE / SALE PRICE 107.8% MONTH SUPPLY (MSI) 1.20
107.0
↑.77%
1.47
↓19.8%
CONDO MARKET The condo market tells a different story — and an important one.
In 2025, condominiums became more price- sensitive and buyer-driven compared to 2024. While headline prices rose 2.3% , leverage shifted meaningfully toward buyers. Inventory averaged 3.17 months , homes sold in 52 days, and sellers received just over 100% of asking price.
Well-located, well-run buildings with strong owner-occupancy continued to perform. Investor-heavy, higher-density product required sharper pricing and patience.
Condominiums are no longer a timing trade. They are a selection trade.
In 2025, higher sales volume and tightening inventory pushed prices modestly higher while homes sold faster, indicating a healthier and more competitive market than 2024.
This is not weakness. It’s normalization.
2025
TOTAL SALES UNITS
VS 2024
YOY CHANGE
2,638
2,235
↑18.0%
MEDIAN $ (M) $1,130
$1,105
↑2.3%
AVG $ / SF $1,023
$1,011
↑1.2%
DAYS ON MARKET 52
56
↓0.3%
LIST PRICE / SALE PRICE 100.3 MONTH SUPPLY (MSI) 3.17
100.21
↑0.09%
3.91
↓18.9%
Effortless, private, and exceptionally well executed.
SELLER PERSPECTIVE
NOTABLE SALES | NOE VALLEY
1209 SANCHEZ STREET $1,350,000 | Seller Representation
This required creativity.
With an occupied home and privacy concerns, traditional staging wasn’t an option. We combined private marketing, virtual tools, and a tight off‑market strategy. The result was strong pricing and the right next owners.
NOTABLE SALES | DUBOCE TRIANGLE
47 SCOTT STREET $1,675,000 | Buyer Representation
This was a return home.
With a specific checklist and competitive conditions, clarity mattered. Seven offers were on the table — but preparation and negotiation carried the day.
A seamless San Francisco homecoming.
Straightforward, knowledgeable — every detail handled.
BUYER PERSPECTIVE
HOME PREP SUCCESS STORY
8 HILL POINT Cole Valley
“Brendon really hit it out of the park for us and went above and beyond our expectations. I don’t think we would have gotten the price we did on our house were it not for all the work Brendon put into getting our property to market. I would highly recommend him, 5 stars!”
LARS | SELLER
11 DAYS ON MARKET
$200,000 INVESTMENT COSTS
$3,120,000 SALE PRICE
BEFORE
125% OVER LIST PRICE
$1,095,000 EQUITY UNLOCKED
AFTER
One phone call made a million dollar difference. After finding me online, my out-of-state client called with a tall order — to sell his childhood home in San Francisco after being tenant occupied for over thirty years. The home required extensive upgrades, but following my advice led to a beautifully presented home and an additional $1.1M in equity unlocked.
MARKET TRENDS
BY THE NEIGHBORHOOD Where Did San Francisco Improve the Most?
UNITS SOLD
MEDIAN SALE PRICE (M) 2025 YOY
DAYS ON MARKET
2025
YOY
2025
YOY
317
+1.9%
$1 ,800
0.0%
26
-16.1%
DISTRICT 1
461
+6.2%
$1 ,610
+4.6%
18
-14.3%
DISTRICT 2
159
-1.2%
$1 ,275
+2.0%
25
-7.4%
DISTRICT 3
365
+9.9%
$1 ,889
+8.6%
26
-10.3%
DISTRICT 4
736
+15.9%
$1 ,710
+0.9%
29
-17.1%
DISTRICT 5
307
+23.8%
$1 ,239
+7.7%
42
-2.3%
DISTRICT 6
449
+16.0%
$2,235
+9.0%
39
-17.0%
DISTRICT 7
540
+17.4%
$1 ,030
+1.5%
58
-20.6%
DISTRICT 8
1 ,118
+25.2%
$1 ,117
-2.0%
57
-10.9%
DISTRICT 9
504
+4.4%
$1 ,020
-3.6%
38
-11.6%
DISTRICT 10
The most telling story isn’t in citywide averages — it’s in the divergence.
outperformed meaningfully — even where transaction counts declined.
Several districts saw fewer sales but dramatically higher median prices, confirming what many felt anecdotally: buyers are consolidating around quality, lifestyle, and scarcity. Neighborhoods with: • predominantly single-family housing • limited new supply • strong end-user appeal
Meanwhile, districts with heavier density or investor exposure saw longer market times and more negotiation, despite improving volume.
This was not a rising-tide year. It was a selectivity year.
TOP UPGRADES THAT STILL MATTER
When clients ask where to invest, the answer is rarely flashy. It’s foundational.
START WITH COHESION Consistent flooring, neutral wall color, and thoughtful lighting create clarity. Buyers don’t respond to finishes — they respond to how a space feels.
A cohesive canvas makes homes feel larger, calmer, and easier to understand.
KITCHENS & BATHS Timeless always outperforms trendy. Natural materials, dimensional tile, warm palettes, and matte hardware create impact without dating the home. The goal is quiet confidence — not distraction. Renovate for how you live. But if a sale is on the horizon, engage early. The best returns come from alignment, not impulse.
THE MARKET ISN’T HOT — IT’S DISCERNING If you’re a buyer and the market feels “hot,” it’s worth resetting the narrative.
This is not a hot market.
Hot markets are driven by urgency — buy now or pay more later. Decisions get rushed. FOMO takes over.
That’s not San Francisco today.
What we’re in now is a discerning market. Certain homes — those without apologies — still move quickly. Great light. Great layout. Strong pricing strategy. They attract real competition.
Homes with compromises wait.
That contrast can feel confusing, especially when headlines, anecdotes, and economic signals pull in opposite directions.
When I step back, I don’t see chaos. I see the early stages of a new cycle.
I’ve seen this before.
Technology reshapes how we live and work. New companies form. Capital concentrates. Confidence returns — and when housing demand follows, it tends to arrive quickly.
I believe another hot market is coming.
I just can’t tell you exactly when.
What I can tell you is this: the buyers and sellers who win next are preparing now.
WHY WORK WITH BRENDON
This isn’t about being aggressive. It’s about being prepared.
UNLOCKING EQUITY In 2025 alone, my work unlocked over $3.9M in homeowner equity — an average of $683,000 per listing.
In uncertain markets, outcomes don’t improve by pushing harder — they improve by seeing clearer. FOR BUYERS On average, my buyers write 1.29 offers before securing their home. Most succeed on their first attempt. That isn’t luck. It’s the result of disciplined preparation, honest expectations, and relationships built over 23 years in San Francisco real estate. When the right home appears, my clients aren’t scrambling — they’re ready. The goal isn’t to win every house. The goal is to win the right one, without regret. FOR SELLERS Homes I represent sell 22 days faster than the San Francisco average — 44% faster overall — and at 23% higher $/SF than the broader market.
Over the past five years, that number exceeds $15M.
Equity isn’t found by accident. It’s unlocked through structure, policy, experience, and the right team — with no room for rookie mistakes. Real estate is rarely just about property. It’s about making meaningful decisions under uncertainty — and navigating those moments well. BEYOND ALGORITHMS My listings outperform the Zillow Zestimate by an average of 17.3%.
Algorithms are useful.
But pricing strategy, buyer psychology, and market timing still require human judgment — especially in San Francisco’s micro-markets.
FINAL THOUGHT
Speed isn’t the objective.
If you’re unsure what your next move is — that’s not hesitation.
Certainty is.
That’s awareness.
That comes from correct pricing, disciplined preparation, and a strategy that anticipates buyer behavior instead of reacting to it.
And awareness is where the best decisions begin.
If you’re considering a move in 2026 — or simply trying to make sense of where you stand — I’m always happy to be a sounding board.
No pressure. No rushed decisions. Just clear, honest perspective.
BRENDON KEARNEY
Broker, Top 1% San Francisco Agents 415.640.4757 brendon.kearney@compass.com brendonkearney.com DRE 01350213
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01527235. All material present - ed herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footages are approximate.
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter maker