CASE STUDY: A 2025 CONDOMINIUM PURCHASE COMPARISON
ESTIMATED VALUE & EQUITY (2025) Mortgage balance (both): ~$790,000
Two buyers purchased condominiums in 2015 - one in vibrant South Beach, the other in the more residential Dolores Heights neighborhood.
Dolores Heights • Estimated value: ~$1,395,000 • Total equity: ~$605,000 • ROI Annualized (nominal): ~9.1% South Beach • Estimated value: ~$1,090,000 • Total equity: ~$300,000 • ROI Annualized (nominal): ~1.9%
Scenario (Both Buyers) • Purchase price (2015): $1,250,000 • Down payment: $250,000 (20%) • Loan: 30‑yr fixed ~3.75%
A 10-YEAR PERFORMANCE CHECK
From 2015 to 2025, SFAR MLS data shows a clear split between South Beach and Dolores Heights.
South Beach — higher density and investor-heavy — experienced sharper peaks and deeper corrections, particularly after rate shock and excess inventory collided in 2022.
Dolores Heights remained insulated by scarcity and end-user demand, maintaining pricing power, shorter market times, and consistent over-asking sales.
Same purchase year. Same leverage. Very different outcomes.
In San Francisco condos, where you buy often matters more than when you buy.
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