he has little incentive to negotiate based on the basic principles of international law that the G7 is defending. The G7 has expressed support for the international peace conference in Switzerland in June, but the impact of this diplomatic endeavour is widely expected to be fairly limited: Russia has refused to participate, and key actors, including China, may choose not to be involved or send low-level delegations. NEW PUNITIVE MEASURES Another significant issue is the need to update the G7’s sanctions imposed on Russia, as their effect on the Russian economy has been significantly lower than expected. The G7 will likely approve new punitive measures to respond to Russia’s escalating attacks in Ukraine, repeated cyberattacks against several western countries and alleged acts of sabotage in the EU. One top concern is the industrial items that Russia receives from China, which help it rebuild its defence industrial base. This is another major source of friction between Beijing and the G7. It remains to be seen if the G7 can devise effective measures to induce China to backtrack. Driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing seems difficult, not least because of their ever closer alliance and G7 members’ deteriorating relations with both countries. All G7 members are experiencing, to different degrees, growing fiscal constraints that raise doubts about the sustainability of their support for Ukraine. This has intensified the debate over the use of frozen Russian financial assets – worth about $300 billion – to support Ukraine. G7 governments hold different positions: while the US administration favours seizing all Russian reserves and transferring them to Ukraine, many EU officials fear that outright confiscation may
G7 members have shown remarkable unity and cohesion in responding to such a blatant violation of fundamental international law principles” violate international law and trigger destabilising Russian countermeasures. EU leaders have decided on a more cautious plan for using the profits from Russian assets. The G7 is discussing different options and will likely reach an agreement at the Apulia Summit in June. Hopefully, Apulia will provide a forum for G7 leaders to candidly assess the many challenges they are facing in implementing their plans to support Ukraine. New commitments can help reinforce not only security but also political and economic relations with Kyiv. A renewed strong message should be sent to Putin that the G7 will continue to be on Ukraine’s side in the coming years and that it is in the G7’s vital interest to prevent Russian aggression from achieving its goals.
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globalgovernanceproject.org
2024 — G7 ITALY: THE APULIA SUMMIT
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